Support for the Belfast Agreement among the unionist community in Northern Ireland has recovered after the sharp fall recorded last week, according to the figures in the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll. The survey, carried out earlier this week, indicates the agreement will get the support of 71 per cent of voters, with 29 per cent against.
The poll suggests the drop in unionist support after coverage of the reception given to the Balcombe Street prisoners at the Sinn Fein Ardfheis has been halted. The intense campaigning by Mr Tony Blair and Mr David Trimble is reflected in the new figures.
Among those surveyed in the North 60 per cent said they would vote Yes; 25 per cent No, and 15 per cent were undecided. Compared with the previous week, this shows an increase of four percentage points in the Yes vote, with a corresponding fall in the percentage of undecided, while the No vote remains static.
Eliminating the undecided from the latest figures yields a Yes vote of 71 per cent, which most supporters of the agreement would regard as a comfortable victory.
Among unionist voters, support for a Yes vote has increased from 35 to 40 per cent, with 43 per cent against, compared with 45 per cent last week, while the percentage of undecided unionists drops from 20 to 17. Eliminating the undecided, the per cent net figures are: Yes, 48 and No, 52, compared with last week's figures of Yes, 45 and No, 55.
The poll, directed by MRBI for The Irish Times with fieldwork in Northern Ireland by the Harris Research Centre, was carried out by telephone last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 500 voters. There is a 41/2 per cent margin of error.
The survey was conducted prior to Tuesday night's rock concert in Belfast, where Mr Trimble and Mr John Hume appeared with Bono of U2. Mr Blair's third visit and the intervention of the Tory leader, Mr William Hague, may also firm up unionist support.
Among nationalists and republicans, backing for the agreement remains solid, with SDLP followers holding at 96 per cent, while support among Sinn Fein voters has risen from 83 to 97 per cent.
Initial figures compiled by MRBI for The Irish Times immediately after the conclusion of the Stormont negotiations showed 73 per cent support for the agreement, with 14 per cent against and 13 per cent undecided. But there was considerably higher support among nationalists than unionists, and in succeeding weeks doubts grew among the unionist community, culminating in last week's poll results which caused alarm among Yes campaigners.
The latest figures indicate that support for the No lobby is largely static, indicating that its campaign has peaked. The more aggressive and energetic approach by Ulster Unionist leaders and the successive interventions by Mr Blair appear to have paid dividends.
The north-east region of Northern Ireland shows the lowest level of support for the pact, at 47 per cent, but backing has increased significantly in Belfast, from 58 per cent last week to 68 per cent.
The Yes campaign's emphasis on young voters seems to have worked, with support in the 18-24 age group increasing from 39 to 50 per cent.
Among members of the Protestant community, there is now a narrow majority in favour of the agreement at 51 per cent for, with 49 per cent against, when undecided voters are eliminated. This compares with last week's net figures of Yes, 47 and No, 53 per cent.
Voting intentions for the assembly elections show little change, although the high profile of Mr Robert McCartney has brought his UK Unionists to 6 per cent, one point ahead of the Alliance Party.
Mr Trimble said yesterday the Yes campaign had come through "a wobbly bit" and the tide was turning in its favour. Holding up a photograph of himself on stage with Mr Hume and Bono, he said it showed that "we can work together for the future, that we can overcome the problems".