THE nine Ulster Unionist MPs appear set to "abstain in person" in a crunch Commons vote tonight which threatens to rebound on Mr Tony Blair.
As the Labour leader acknowledged the likelihood of a government victory in tonight's vote over the BSE crisis, Mr Paddy Ashdown, the Liberal Democrat leader, said the result would marginally strengthen Mr John Major's government.
Criticising Labour for having "mishandled" the censure motion on the Agriculture Minister, Mr Douglas Hogg, Mr Ashdown said: "The result, I suspect, is that the government won't be damaged. It may well be that the outcome is the opposite of that Labour intended and wanted, which is that the government is marginally strengthened."
With apparent disregard for the parliamentary arithmetic, senior Labour figures had hyped tonight's vote, suggesting an opposition victory would pave the way for a no confidence motion against Mr Major and an early general election. But it quickly emerged that Labour's shadow cabinet had decided on the venture without consultation with the UUP.
While the Ulster Unionists yesterday maintained the habitual tease about their voting intentions, party sources confirmed as reported in The Irish Times last Thursday - that they would not be voting with Labour.
Even with UUP support and the backing of all the other minority parties, Labour does not have the numbers to ensure a government defeat and until and unless Labour wins the upcoming Wirral South by election - assuming the government is able to deliver every Conservative vote - the conditions do not exist for a successful "confidence" heave against Mr Major.
Moreover, senior Ulster Unionist MPs make no secret of their Willingness to sustain Major should he choose to hold the election on May 1st. Some of them believe the prime minister will signal his intention to do just that opting for a six week campaign, by mid March.
Even before the shadow cabinet decision was announced last Wednesday, the UUP leadership appeared content with the government's timetable for submitting its proposals to Brussels for lifting the European Union's export ban on "certified herds". The UUP also expects early confirmation of the government's decision to enhance the role of the Northern Ireland Grand Committee at Westminster, along the lines of the Scottish model.
The UUP deputy leader, Mr John Taylor, said yesterday he was confident that two new "advantages" for Northern Ireland would emerge soon. "Just as we got the fishing quotas extended, I'm reasonably confident that two further advantages for Northern Ireland will emerge in the not distant future. David Trimble and myself have regular meetings with the government and we are making progress on a number of fronts," he said.
Mr Blair yesterday said he was confident Labour would win the argument in today's debate, while admitting that Mr Major's government would "probably scrape through".
In a newspaper article, Mr Blair said BSE was a "potent symbol of John Major's administration" containing "all the elements of recent Tory rule: incompetence, drift, broken promise, lack of leadership, and a failure to secure the best deal for Britain in Europe".
Suggesting BSE "is John Major's poll tax", Mr Blair said: "We are confident we will win the argument. Winning the vote will be more difficult. We will muster as much support as we can, but are aware that, for now at least, the government can probably scrape through."
Reuter adds: Britain's undeclared election campaign may already have been dubbed the dirtiest fought yet, but the Labour leader has reportedly drawn the line at turning his opponent into a children's cartoon character.
Newspapers yesterday said Mr Tony Blair had vetoed an advertising campaign portraying the prime minister as a feeble, dithering version of the Mr Men of children's books.
Labour's advertising agency, BMP, had designed a series of brightly coloured posters showing Mr John Major as Mr Spineless, Mr Dither, Mr Weak and Mr Panic, according to the Independent on Sunday and the Sunday Express. But while Mr Blair has rarely passed up an opportunity to accuse Mr Major of being an ineffectual leader, he had decided that the campaign was simply childish, the papers said.
Mr Blair believed "the adverts demeaned the office of prime minister itself and voters expect us to treat the election seriously," a Labour spokesman told the Express.
Last year, the Conservatives provoked a furore by portraying Mr Blair with sinister red eyes in a series of posters warning of "New Labour, New Danger".
Critics were appalled by the implication that Mr Blair was evil, but the campaign was a clear signal of how bitterly fought this year's general election will be.