THE British Labour Party's bid to force an early general election crumbled last night when Mr John Major's government won a vital Commons vote with a majority of 13.
As forecast in last Thursday's Irish Times, abstentions by the nine Ulster Unionist MPs helped the agriculture minister, Mr Douglas Hogg, defeat a Labour censure motion over his handling of the BSE crisis. The vote was 320 to 307.
But Labour's assault on Mr Hogg helped the Ulster Unionists to wring further concessions from Mr Major and his ministers on the beef crisis in Northern Ireland, as well as on the political front.
Ministers indicated that, in practical terms, Northern Ireland beef farmers could expect to be the first to escape the EU's beef export ban, under plans which Mr Hogg will submit to the European Commission, probably within the next fortnight.
In a last minute concession, the public service minister, Mr Roger Freeman, winding up the debate, announced extra financial support for suckler herd owners in Northern Ireland.
It also emerged last night that an announcement about an enlarged role for the Northern Ireland Grand Committee at Westminster - long sought by the Ulster Unionists - is now likely to be made in the week after next.
Critics of the move told The Irish Times that the timing of the announcement was crucial, since the Ulster Unionists want the revamped committee operational under its new terms of reference before the general election in case an incoming Labour government decided not to honour Mr Major's commitment.
Labour had hoped a government defeat last night would pave the way for a full scale confidence vote and an early general election. Instead, the party's tactics backfired badly on Mr Tony Blair - handing the Conservatives a morale-boosting win and increasing the likelihood that Mr Major will be able to delay the general election until May 1st.
Any attempt at a "confidence" heave against Mr Major will now have to await the expected Labour victory in the Wirral South by election on February 27th.
The government's comfortable margin last night suggested that it had also benefited from the absence of other Northern Ireland MPs, apart from the nine Ulster Unionists, who abstained. There was speculation that an announcement last week of a scheme of rate relief to assist some small businesses in Northern Ireland might have explained the apparent absence of the DUP MP, the Rev William McCrea.
Defending himself against the Labour attack, Mr Hogg made an early pitch for UUP support, promising that he would "urge" the European Commission to support a scheme which could soon free up Northern Ireland's beef exports.
The plan is to identify certified herds which are grass fed and BSE free. Mr Hogg told the Commons: "The concept of the certified herd is general in its application. But, in the drafting of its provisions, we had very much in mind the special circumstances that exist in Northern Ireland because, by the nature of the identity systems they have and because of the very low incidence of BSE... the concept will be especially beneficial to Northern Ireland."
Asked by Mr William Ross MP if he would ask specifically that the ban in Northern Ireland be lifted, Mr Hogg said: "That flows from what I have said ... it certainly is my intention to support the case for Northern Ireland."
Winding up the debate, Mr Freeman echoed Mr Hogg's comment that the certified herds scheme would have a "direct and immediate positive impact" on Northern Ireland farmers.