ANALYSIS: Public sector unions are bracing themselves for a government onslaught on semi-State companies and curbs on pay if the current coalition returns to power, writes Padraig Yeates, Industry and Employment Correspondent
The unexpected resurrection of the Progressive Democrats and the failure of the Labour Party to capitalise on public discontent with "quality of life" issues such as health, childcare and transport could create serious problems for the trade union movement.
If a strengthened PD party returns to government and delivers on its election strategy of avoiding tax increases by curbing the public-sector pay bill and privatising semi-State companies in a new programme for government then the days of social partnership could be numbered.
Statements by the Irish Business and Employers' Confederation during the election campaign also augur ill for the future of partnership.
Significantly, the SIPTU president, Mr Des Geraghty, leader of the country's largest union, was stressing yesterday the commitment of the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, "politically and intellectually" to social partnership.
"The first thing to be said about the election outcome is that Bertie Ahern will be Taoiseach. He's made it very clear he is in favour of another national agreement That's a plus," Mr Geraghty said.
He accepts that the PDs, the party Mr Ahern identifies as his favoured partner, "have an agenda of privatisation and have always favoured tax cuts for high-income groups. Having said that, they managed to come to terms with the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness."
Mr Geraghty made it clear that SIPTU would oppose implementation of large-scale privatisation. He believes the Eircom debacle and experience of privatisation elsewhere, particularly in Britain, has made people more aware of the dangers of the process. "There is more and more evidence that private owners are unwilling to invest in the infrastructure needed to provide safe and good-quality services", he said.
Mr Ahern's role in negotiating a new programme for government will be crucial from a union point of view. "What he sets out as the priority issues will have a key influence on union attitudes towards the new government," Mr Geraghty said.
SIPTU's priorities remain improving the tax, pay, social welfare and pension package for low- to middle-income PAYE workers. The union will be consulting members on strategy ahead of the special delegate conference of the ICTU, probably in September, but traditionally it has used national agreements as the best way of meeting members' needs.
Mr Ahern's first test as guarantor of the partnership process will come after the Public Service Benchmarking Body's report at the end of June. It is hard to see how any government will be able to square the circle of falling revenue and rising pay expectations.
The State's largest public-service union, IMPACT, holds its annual conference in Cork this week and can be expected to provide a foretaste of things to come. Its general secretary, Mr Peter McLoone, said bluntly yesterday that the make-up of the next government was a lot less important than how it responded to the benchmarking report.
Nor did he have much sympathy for the PD view of public finances. He pointedly reminded politicians that the benchmarking review was part of the PPF and contained a commitment that it would be implemented "as speedily as possible".
"As far as we're concerned they are honour-bound by the PPF," he said. While he accepted that "we face new challenges because money is not coming in as quickly as in the last two to three years, the government is still in surplus, and the best way of going forward is to implement the report."
For Mr Blair Horan, general secretary of the largest civil service union, the Civil and Public Service Unon, the election outcome reflected "the re-emergence of radical politics". While he believed there was still a majority for consensus and social partnership in the industrial field he added: "There is a danger that if the big gap that has emerged between high-income earners and the rest is not addressed radicalism could re-emerge on the industrial scene as well."