Unpredictable election battle ahead

Newry is a place transformed these days

Newry is a place transformed these days. Now a city, thanks to the say-so of Queen Elizabeth on the occasion of her golden jubilee, it is thriving.

Shopping centres, a grand new hotel and traffic congestion all illustrate the rebirth of a place which, rather like Dundalk just down the road, is unrecognisable from 25 years ago.

Paramilitary ceasefires and the removal of customs stops and British army watch towers have all played their part. Peace process politics too have shaken the old predictability.

Sinn Féin is trying to follow a spectacular performance in 2003, when it won half the seats here, with a candidate line-up drastically altered by fallouts and deselections.

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Gone are Assembly members Pat O'Rawe in Armagh and Davy Hyland in Newry - the latter running as a republican independent. In come Cathal Boylan, an anti-Orange march protester, and new party member Mickey Brady.

The SDLP dearly wants to recover its lost seat and is running Dominic Bradley, who won his party's sole seat here in 2003, accompanied by 20-something party press officer Sharon Haughey.

She won a council seat on Newry and Mourne Council last year and consequently shoulders much SDLP hope in what was once Mallon country.

The nationalist electoral mathematics are complicated. Sinn Féin squeaked the final seat in 2003, but has since followed that up with resounding success in Westminster last year and a showing in the council elections that, possibly, points to a repeat performance.

However, and it is a big however, things are shaping up rather differently this time.

The Hyland factor, both in terms of first preferences and transfers, remains unpredictable.

Deprived of party backing, Hyland has managed a few posters around Newry in contrast to the near wallpapering of the place by Sinn Féin clearly fighting hard to advance its fresh-looking ticket.

Add to the mix the possibility that Ulster Unionist transfers from a safely re-elected Danny Kennedy could aid the SDLP and you have one of the most unpredictable battles for the final seats anywhere in the North.

Things are no clearer on the unionist side.

Gospel-singing DUP man Paul Berry was the youngest member sent to Stormont in 1998. Still only 30, he is now fighting as an independent, this time courtesy of allegations about an encounter in a Belfast hotel room with a male masseur. His party suspended him pending disciplinary proceedings, but the boyish-faced member of three loyal orders quit.

As with Davy Hyland's case, the loss of big party backing is all too evident around the unionist pockets of the constituency.

In contrast, the bright posters bearing the name of William Irwin illustrate the power of the DUP electoral effort both within the unionist heartlands and elsewhere. Fighting them both is victims campaigner William Frazer who is best known for picketing just about anything nationalist Ireland can mount.

Hoping to attract unionists repelled by the thought of Ian Paisley doing a deal with Sinn Féin, Frazer is intent on raising his showing well beyond that of an also-ran in previous outings.

The DUP candidate could be best placed to pick up the second unionist quota here if, for no other reason, it looks a big task for either Frazer or Berry to do so comfortably.

What's important here is not only who gets elected, but also at what stage of the count, as transfers will be central to the outcome.