Assessment: The polls may be against him, but Michael Noonan does not appear a man in despair, writes Mark Brennock
He could be Taoiseach in two months time or he could be yesterday's man, a backbench former Minister sitting in Opposition alongside John Bruton, the former Taoiseach Mr Noonan's supporters overthrew just over a year ago.
And currently, the smart money is on the latter. Mr Noonan's elevation to Fine Gael's top job was followed by the Telenor revelations, news of under-the-counter payments to party staff and finally, RTE's revival (through a four-part television series) of the lowest point of Mr Noonan's political life - the handling of the Hepatitis C affair.
It can be argued that he hasn't been given much of a chance to impress and his party has bombed in national opinion polls since he became party leader - just as it did beforehand. Mr Noonan's ratings have been down close to the lowest achieved by his predecessor. But he does not appear to be a man in despair. In this interview he appeared relaxed, energised, clear about what he wanted to achieve in Government. He was clearly engaged personally in all the major issues, answering every question off-the-cuff, in some cases thinking his answer through as he spoke.
This provided a sharp contrast to the Taoiseach (whose interview was published yesterday) who read extensively from briefing documents when responding to almost every question.
Noonan was upbeat about his party's prospects, insisting with some justification that actual election results in individual constituencies always treat Fine Gael better than the national polls.
He is a good political campaigner. He had a good abortion referendum, and was a key influencer of middle-Ireland votes in the 1996 pro-divorce campaign. At his best in the past he has attracted respect; and, during the period when the RTE radio comedy series Scrap Saturday was at its height, he was even held in affection by many.
His only hope now is that he and Fine Gael will hit on something during the campaign that strikes a chord with the electorate and brings them to his party.
He is right when he says Fine Gael tends to do better on polling day than in pre-election polls, but they would want to do an awful lot better than the 20 to 21 per cent they have been getting in recent surveys.
He says - as did his predecessor - that Fine Gael leaders do better during election campaigns because it is only then that voters focus on them as potential Taoisigh.
However Mr Noonan's wish to be seen as leader of an alternative government was dealt a blow by the tone of Labour's conference last weekend, where the party leader and spokesmen dismissed Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael with equal contempt.
Mr Noonan will only be Taoiseach if Labour supports him, and Ruairí Quinn's tone did not fuel any perception that there is an almost formed Noonan-led Government in waiting.
Under his leadership, Fine Gael has chosen to combine a social democratic tone with conservative economics in the imminent campaign. He will receive unprecedented exposure during the campaign as he attempts to sell this message.
His party's fortunes - and indeed its long-term future - depend on how well he does during those crucial three weeks.
He will be 59 in May and so will either face a crowning chapter of his political career as Taoiseach, or a sharp political demise.