CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:CAVAN-MONAGHAN is facing a certain amount of upheaval due to retirements, a predicted Opposition bounce and the scattering of the Fianna Fáil vote.
Fianna Fáil accepts it faces an uphill battle and has nominated two candidates despite holding three seats. The prudent tactic, a Mount Street decision, was reportedly hammered home by Brian Lenihan at the selection convention last Thursday.
The retiring Rory O’Hanlon automatically retained his seat in 2007 as he was ceann comhairle in the 29th Dáil. Party colleague Brendan Smith topped the poll and Margaret Conlon made it on the fourth and final count.
Brendan Smith is well placed to hold on to his seat, not least because of his high profile from having been minister for agriculture. Fianna Fáil’s task here is to limit the desertion of support and guarantee that the electorally vulnerable Conlon takes the final seat.
Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin looks set to romp home on the first count, building on the secure quota he won last time. The question will be whether he can help the young first-time Dáil candidate Kathryn Reilly claim the keenly contested final seat.
Sinn Féin has an enviable electoral machine in Monaghan but has shallower roots in the Cavan end of the constituency where Reilly, a graduate, is based.
Fine Gael, denying charges of running too many candidates, is nominating four candidates in this five-seater where it has held just one seat since 2002.
Veteran Fine Gael TD Seymour Crawford is retiring and the party is confident Senator Joe O’Reilly will be its standard-bearer while Heather Humphreys is expected to return the second seat. Also declared are Seán Conlan, son of the late John Conlan, himself a former TD who spent 49 years in public life, and Cavan councillor Peter McVitty.
Liam Hogan, the Labour candidate, polled well in local elections, but this is barren territory for the party in general elections. In 2007 the party polled just 700 votes and not even the strongest of Gilmore gales could push it towards a quota.
Darcy Lonergan is running for the Greens and would do well to match the near 2,400 votes Vincent Martin won in 2007.
Independent candidates have made their mark here previously. This time, Monaghan county councillor Séamus Treanor and anti-Lisbon Treaty campaigner John McGuirk will hope to capitalise on the anticipated anti-Fianna Fail backlash.
CAVAN-MONAGHAN: 5 SEATS
OUTGOING TDs: Margaret Conlon (FF), Seymour Crawford (FG), Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin (SF), Rory O' Hanlon (FF), Brendan Smith (FF).
DECLARED TO DATE:Brendan Smith (FF), Margaret Conlon (FF), Heather Humphreys (FG), Joe O'Reilly (FG), Peter McVitty (FG), Sean Conlan (FG), Liam Hogan (Lab), Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin (SF), Kathryn Reilly (SF), Darcy Lonergan (GP), Seamus Treanor (Ind), John McGuirk (Ind).
LOCAL ISSUES: Health dominates as a local issue, with Monaghan hospital reduced to day status — a decision which could hurt Fianna Fáil. Retailers have suffered in recent years as shoppers flocked across the Border, but the falling euro and rising VAT in the North is stemming that tide.
Despite a reasonably healthy agri-products sector — no doubt a bonus for the outgoing agriculture minister — non-Fianna Fáil candidates point to rising unemployment especially in the locally vital construction sector.
VERDICT: FF 1, FG 2, SF 2