On her campaign to encourage Democrats to vote, Mary Maher writes that spirits in her headquarters are up despite polls showing Bush is back with a slim lead.
A pool has been posted on the wall in our headquarters inviting bets on which date the White House will announce that Osama bin-Laden has been captured.
Only three weeks ago, Teresa Heinz Kerry, who's given Democrats many anguished moments, was severely rebuked by the US press for suggesting this very possibility from a public platform.
But since Kerry was announced the clear victor after last Wednesday's debate, political commentators have begun to warn broodingly of unpredictable variables, unforeseen events, an "October surprise" that could decide it all in a single sweep.
What is foreseen is an increasingly dirty campaign now that the statesmanlike debating season is over. The betting pool is a means of warding off the evil fates by confrontation, like writing your will before boarding a plane. Our spirits are up despite polls showing that Bush is back with a slim lead. We have a theory about the polls. The only people they reflect are those on the old voters' registration lists who answer their landline phones, and who does that anymore?
They don't reflect the young people with only mobile phones; they don't reflect the newly-registered voters.
But we're not in danger of drifting into complacency. We're still hunting the SBAD (Should Be A Democrat) voter, and that has its discouraging moments.
The day after Shane met a Socialist Worker Party (SWD) member, James found a Libertarian. "Never came across one of them before," he said. "What exactly is a Libertarian?"
Shane, who has a masters degree in political science, was the only one with an answer.
"They believe government should stay out of everything. Well, I think they accept the government has to build roads. But they say everything else should be left to the market."
"Say what?"
"The market. Libertarians think the market will take care of everything. Like, if business needs healthy workers or educated workers or streetlights or whatever, business will look after it. If the Libertarians ever put up a good candidate they'd probably split the Republican Party. But Bush is right-wing enough for them; they can vote for him with a clean conscience."
Whereas the Democratic Party, he added, will never be left-wing enough to satisfy the SWP conscience. They're part of the loss of Democratic support to liberal/left/green/etc protest voters.
Shane has had a vexing few days. His list included the man who wanted to know which candidate would get his trash collected on time, and the woman who was going to write Bill Clinton's name on the ballot "because he's the only president I ever liked. Even after that Monica thing, he's still cool."
Shane was also on the doorstep of one of his registered Democrats when the police arrived with a warrant for the man's arrest.
He wins the weekly Bad SBAD encounter award, though I came close. Three of my apartment blocks turned out to be, respectively, a rehabilitation centre, a night shelter and a halfway house for released convicts. Eighteen SBADs had moved on to addresses unknown, and one was back in jail.
Then, on my last knock of the evening, the woman who answered the door said the man on my list was dead. I expressed my condolences, backing off apologetically.
"Oh hey, it's no big deal," she said. "My stupid sister married him. He was a bum."
Then again, there are comforts. Kerry-Edwards posters are sprouting up in windows all over our turf, and we are now such a familiar sight friendly natives offer confidences and advice. The woman who manages Peanuts Bar and Grill serves us vast lunches, and sometimes provides diet cokes on the house, though she is a Republican. "I think it's great what you're doing, trying to get people out to vote," she said, and then admitted she was still undecided.
"I'm a Reagan Republican really," she said. "He was a great president." We nodded diplomatically. All things are relative. "But I guess I'm a liberal on a lot of issues. I'm pro-choice, for instance. So I don't know what I'm going to do."
The fireman who gave us change for the coke machine said: "Pittsburgh's going for Kerry, big time. Philly too, all the cities. It's the state you gotta worry about; the guys with the guns, you know? They don't care about anything else."
Dolores, who runs Meals on Wheels in a nursing home, stopped me and said: "You gotta make sure someone drives my seniors to the polls! Honey, you got 18 votes sitting up there! They won't even say Bush's name! When they see him on that TV screen they hiss!"
And no one has growled at us lately about Mrs Kerry, who has clearly been persuaded not to speak until the election is over.
Pittsburghers are especially sensitive about Mrs Kerry and her comportment, and for every defender of her feistiness and independence we've met two critics who speak sadly of her late first husband and their former Republican senator John Heinz, as if she was a Stepford Wife on his watch.
That isn't to say they are particularly reverential about the rest of the family despite the Heinz generosity. The name graces the new football stadium, history centre, architectural centre, memorial chapel, even the hall that's home to the Pittsburgh symphony orchestra.
Just the same, when you mention any of this the reply is a nod, and a remark very like what Dubliners say about the largesse of the Guinness family: nothing to what Pittsburgh has done for them.
Next week Mrs Kerry and her husband will be back in Pennsylvania. We have good news for them, all in numbers. We are knocking on almost 1,000 doors a day, and we've talked to more than 2,000 voters.
About 250,000 new voters have been registered across the state. If we can get even one in three of them out on November 2nd, we are fairly sure we won't have to worry about the guys with the guns.