US: An official document issued by the US foreign aid agency depicts the security situation in Iraq as dire, with constant insurgent attacks "significantly damaging" infrastructure and widespread lawlessness dramatically curtailing civil liberties, it was reported yesterday.
The grim analysis came attached to a request for contractors to help rebuild Iraqi cities published by the US Agency for International Development (USAid), excerpts of which were printed in yesterday's Washington Post.
The picture it paints is not only far darker than the generally optimistic accounts from the White House and the Pentagon, it also gives a more complex profile of the insurgency than the straightforward "rejectionists, Saddamists and terrorists" triad often described by President Bush.
The USAid analysis talks of an "internecine conflict" which includes "religious-sectarian, ethnic, tribal, criminal and politically-based" violence.
"It is increasingly common for tribesmen to 'turn in' to the authorities enemies as insurgents; this as a form of tribal revenge," the paper says, casting doubt on the efficacy of counter-insurgent sweeps by coalition and Iraqi forces.
Meanwhile, foreign jihadist groups "are gaining in number and notoriety as significant actors". Most of their recruits are coming from "Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region".
The suggestion that al-Qaeda could be growing in strength contrasted with remarks made on Friday by the outgoing coalition commander in Iraq, Lieut Gen John Vines, who said the al-Qaeda branch in Iraq could be in "disarray".
The USAid document was part of an invitation to contractors to bid on a $1.3 billion (€1.07 billion)project to stabilise Iraqi cities, including Baghdad, Basra, Mosul, Kirkuk and Najaf. The project is aimed at curbing violence through job creation and rebuilding infrastructure.
The paper argues that insurgent attacks "cause a tide of adverse economic and social effects that ripple across Iraq".
It implies a breakdown in society in which "the absence of state control and an effective police force" have let "criminal elements within Iraqi society have almost free rein". Some gangs "have aligned themselves with most of the combating groups and factions", while Baghdad "is reportedly divided into zones controlled by organised criminal groups-clans".
The lawlessness has had an impact on basic freedoms, USAid argues, particularly in the Shia south, where "social liberties have been curtailed dramatically by roving bands of self-appointed religious-moral police".
USAid officials were not available for comment on the report yesterday. Judith Yaphe, a former CIA expert on Iraq now teaching at the National Defence University in Washington, said while the administration's pronouncements on the security situation were often too rosy, the USAid version, or at least the printed excerpts, was overly pessimistic.