General David Petraeus, the top US military commander in Iraq, has suggested he will recommend a reduction in US troop numbers around March when he reports to Congress next week.
"The surge will run its course. There are limits to what our military can provide, so, my recommendations have to be informed by - not driven by - but they have to be informed by the strain we have put on our military services," Gen Petraeus said in an interview with ABC News at Camp Victory in Baghdad
"That has to be a key factor in what I will recommend."
US General David Petraeus
Gen Petraeus declined to be specific about the recommendations, which he gave to President George W. Bush during a surprise visit to Iraq on Monday.
But when asked if the drawdown to avoid further strain on the military would happen in March, he replied: "Your calculations are about right."
Gen Petraeus is due to present his assessment to Congress next week along with the US ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker. ABC News quoted him as saying he is not feeling pressure from the political debate to present a rosy picture of the war.
Gen Petraeus said that while it is still very dangerous in Iraq and the insurgents remain capable of carrying out what he called barbaric attacks, he feels this summer the surge has produced an "initiative, in general, against al-Qaeda, which is a change, and that is an important change."
"Eight of the past 11 weeks have seen the number of incidents, the number of attacks, come down, and to the point that they reached a level that's about the lowest in well over a year, I think," he said. "Civilian casualties (are) still certainly too high. But again, pretty substantial progress, and certainly, trending very much in the right direction".
Mr Bush said today he saw signs of progress in Iraq on military and political fronts and again held out the possibility of a reduction in US troop levels.
Speaking in Sydney at a press conference with Australian Prime Minister John Howard ahead of the Asia-Pacific leaders' summit, Mr Bush said no final decisions had been made on troop levels and said he would not follow "artificial timetables" to gauge whether it was time to make reductions.
Mr Bush is under mounting pressure from Democrats and some senior Republicans who want US troops to start leaving Iraq after more than four years of war in which 3,746 US troops and tens of thousands of Iraqis have been killed.
A US congressional report last night said the Iraqi government has failed to take the political and military steps needed to cut sectarian violence.
The US Government Accountability Office said Iraq had failed to meet 11 of 18 political and military benchmarks set by the US Congress in May, including elimination of militia control of local security.
"Violence remains high, the number of Iraqi security forces capable of conducting independent operations has declined, and militias are not disarmed," the GAO, the investigating arm of Congress, said.
Despite the deployment of 30,000 extra US troops to Iraq, raising force levels to 160,000, it said the number of attacks on civilians remained unchanged from February to July 2007.
During the news conference, Mr Howard, a staunch ally of the US president, gave a strong pledge of support for the Iraq mission, despite the unpopularity in Australia of the war.
Agencies