IRAQ:A grim new intelligence assessment of Iraq warns that an early withdrawal of US troops could lead to chaos, and says that the Iraqi government will be hard-pressed to improve its security capabilities within the next 18 months.
The national intelligence estimate, a joint assessment by the 16 US intelligence agencies, says that the term "civil war" accurately describes some aspects of the situation in Iraq but fails to encompass the complexity of the conflict there.
The office of the national intelligence director made public a nine-page summary of a much longer classified document entitled Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead.
National security adviser Stephen Hadley described the document as a fair assessment of the difficulties the US faces in Iraq and its prospects for success.
"It's a tough look at Iraq. It makes clear the challenges we face. It does suggest that we can succeed with the right policies, and we think we've developed the right policy, the right strategy, the right approach. And it makes it clear once again, as the president has been saying, that the consequences of failure are grave, indeed," he said.
The document outlines the dangers the intelligence agencies see in a rapid withdrawal of US forces, which many Democrats and some Republicans advocate.
"If coalition forces were withdrawn, if such a rapid withdrawal were to take place, we judge that the Iraqi security forces would be unlikely to survive as a non-sectarian national institution. Neighbouring countries, invited by Iraqi factions or unilaterally, might intervene openly in the conflict. Massive civilian casualties and forced population displacement would be probable. Al-Qaeda in Iraq would attempt to use parts of the country, particularly al-Anbar province, to plan increased attacks in and outside of Iraq. And spiralling violence and political disarray in Iraq, along with Kurdish moves to control Kirkuk and to strengthen autonomy, could prompt Turkey to launch a military incursion," it says.
The report plays down the importance of Iran's role in Iraq, which President Bush has identified as a big threat to US forces.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton was heckled by anti-war protesters yesterday as she addressed a meeting of the Democratic National Committee in Washington. "I want to be very clear about this: if I had been president in October 2002, I would not have started this war. If we in congress don't end this war before January 2009, as president, I will," Mrs Clinton said.