Iraq:The largest dam in Iraq is in serious danger of an imminent collapse that could unleash a trillion-gallon wave of water, possibly killing thousands and flooding two of the largest cities in the country, according to new assessments by the US army corps of engineers and other US officials.
Even in a country gripped by daily bloodshed, the possibility of a catastrophic failure of the Mosul dam has alarmed American officials, who have concluded that it could lead to as many as 500,000 civilian deaths by drowning in Mosul under 65 feet of water and parts of Baghdad under 15 feet, said Abdulkhalik Thanoon Ayoub, the dam manager. "The Mosul dam is judged to have an unacceptable annual failure probability," says the dry wording of an Army Corps of Engineers draft report.
At the same time, a US reconstruction project to help shore up the dam in northern Iraq has been marred by incompetence and mismanagement, according to Iraqi officials and a report by a US oversight agency released yesterday.
The reconstruction project, worth at least $27 million, was not intended to be a permanent solution to the dam's deficiencies.
The effort to prevent a failure of the dam has been complicated by behind-the-scenes wrangling between Iraqi and US officials over the severity of the problem and how much money should be allocated to fix it.
The army corps has recommended building a second dam downstream as a fail-safe measure, but Iraqi officials have rejected the proposal, arguing that it is unnecessary and too expensive.
The debate has taken place largely out of public view because both Iraqi and US embassy officials have refused to discuss the details of safety studies - commissioned by the US government for at least $6 million - so as not to frighten Iraqi citizens. Portions of the draft report were read to the Washington Post by an army corps official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
"The army corps of engineers determined that the dam presented unacceptable risks," US ambassador Ryan Crocker and Gen David Petraeus, wrote to prime minister Nouri al-Maliki. "Assuming a worst-case scenario, an instantaneous failure of Mosul dam filled to its maximum operating level could result in a flood wave 20 metres deep at the city of Mosul, which would result in a significant loss of life and property."
Sitting in a picturesque valley 45 miles along the Tigris river north of Mosul, the earthen dam has one fundamental problem: It was built on top of gypsum, which dissolves when it comes into contact with water.
Almost immediately after the dam was completed in the early 1980s, engineers began injecting it with grout, a liquefied mixture of cement and other additives. More than 50,000 tons of material have been pumped since then in a continual effort to prevent the structure from collapsing.
After the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, American officials began to study risks posed by the dam, which they said were underestimated by Iraqis.
On a tour of the dam on a recent hot afternoon, Mr Ayoub, the manager, contended that it was safe, but acknowledged the unusual problems with it. He agreed that the most catastrophic collapse could kill 500,000 people, but said US officials had not convinced him that the structure was at high risk of collapse.
In an interview on Monday, Abdul Latif Rashid, Iraq's minister of water resources, said he believed the safety situation was not critical and that he was more inclined to trust his engineers than American reports. - (LA Times-Washington Post service)