CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:SOUTH DOWN has lost a chunk of the town of Ballynahinch to the Strangford constituency and accordingly has lost some of its unionist voters.
The question here is, will the constituency now lose one of its two unionist seats in the six-seat constituency? Most pressure would appear to be on UUP deputy leader John McCallister rather than DUP incumbent Jim Wells.
If a unionist is unseated the other question is, who gains – the SDLP or Sinn Féin?
In the days of Enoch Powell, Ulster Unionists had the upper hand, but a chipping away by the SDLP and Sinn Féin has transformed it into a nationalist dominated constituency.
Eddie McGrady finally took the seat from Powell in 1987. The SDLP has held on to it tightly since then with McGrady passing on the baton to the SDLP leader Margaret Ritchie last year.
In the 1998 Assembly elections the SDLP won three seats, with one each for Sinn Féin, the DUP and the UUP. Since then Sinn Féin has gained ground. So, it is two seats each for the SDLP and Sinn Féin and a seat each for the DUP and the UUP. The SDLP and Sinn Féin is each running three candidates, each believing there is a slight chance of a third seat.
Another question is: has Sinn Féin been undermined here by the long running grammar school controversy triggered by Minister for Education Caitríona Ruane?
The SDLP believes it has the best chance of a gain here.
In the 2010 Westminster election Ritchie was way ahead of Ruane but unionists voting tactically for the SDLP leader to keep out the Sinn Féin contender bolstered that majority.
Most of those “lent votes” should be returned to the DUP and UUP. The UUP has been represented here since partition and were McCallister to lose he would be making some bad history.
The hope for McCallister is that a sufficient number of those “lent votes” will carry him over the line.
SOUTH DOWN
6 SEATS
OUTGOING:
Caitriona Ruane (SF)
Margaret Ritchie MP (SDLP)
PJ Bradley (SDLP)
Jim Wells (DUP)
Willie Clarke (SF)
John McCallister (UUP)
CANDIDATES:
Bernadette Archibald (SF)
Naomi Bailie (SF)
Willie Clarke (SF)
Cadogan Enright (Green)
David Griffin (Alliance)
John McCallister (UUP)
Karen McKevitt (SDLP)
Eamonn O'Neill (SDLP)
Henry Reilly (UKIP)
Margaret Ritchie MP (SDLP)
Caitríona Ruane (SF)
Jim Wells (DUP)
LOCAL ISSUES:
Should the Mournes be turned into a national park; and poor roads/infrastructure and developing
the constituency's tourist potential.