UUP faces tough decisions on talks strategy

The leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party has a problem

The leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party has a problem. To the left of them there is a British government with a massive majority which has taken a very determined approach to the Northern Ireland conflict. New Labour is not beholden in any way to the unionists and has broad support from the Tories, who are too weak at present to depart from the bipartisan policy even if they wished to do so.

To the right of the UUP leaders there are fearful and worried party activists who are concerned that they might be walking themselves into a trap. They do not trust Sinn Fein and remain unconvinced of the republicans' democratic bona fides. Neither have they much confidence in the intentions of either the British or Irish governments, and the US involvement was never particularly reassuring.

Senior UUP sources don't expect the party to sit down with Sinn Fein on September 15th, the date set for the start of substantive negotiations. A more likely scenario is "some kind of proximity talks". This would open up the prospect of unionist leaders dodging around Castle Buildings seeking to avoid Sinn Fein spokesmen, who are only too anxious to meet them. Sombre efforts to resolve an age-old conflict could end up as a Feydeau farce.

UUP sources have suggested that the proximity talks might collapse under the weight of their own contradictions. In that event, some UUP insiders worry that their party would become the focus of international odium for undermining peace efforts.

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At the end of the day it seems that the UUP will either have to walk away from Castle Buildings or take the difficult and even agonising decision to talk to Sinn Fein. Some insiders believe this would be the right course: "They have called a tactical ceasefire. We should have tactical talks."

UUP sources claim the mood of the party's support base is favourably disposed to an encounter with Sinn Fein. They say there was positive reaction from the UUP grassroots to the robust approach taken by Mr Ken Maginnis in his debate with Sinn Fein's Mr Martin McGuinness. Some of Mr Maginnis's party colleagues worried that he had given Sinn Fein a form of recognition by appearing in the same TV studio, but these concerns were not reflected in the calls to the BBC Talkback phonein programme the following day.

The more such media encounters take place, the more unionist opinion will become used to the idea of its leaders supping with the Sinn Fein devil - albeit using a long spoon.

The Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, is scheduled to issue her ruling on the genuineness or otherwise of the IRA ceasefire by the end of this month. At this stage, no serious observer expects her to throw the cessation back in the IRA's face. The talks resume on September 9th and we may then see Sinn Fein signing on for the Mitchell Principles of democracy and non-violence.

The decommissioning verification body will probably have been established by the two governments and some unionists believe the republicans could make a very constructive contribution at that stage if they handed over a quantity of Semtex and some of their heavier armaments, such as anti-helicopter weapons.

That may be an unlikely scenario, but moderate unionists say it would make it a lot easier for Mr David Trimble and his colleagues to sit down with Sinn Fein.

Pragmatic unionist business people are alive to the economic potential of a permanent peace. They believe the political parties on both sides of the divide are waking up to these possibilities, too, although there is some disappointment over what is seen as the indifference of the Dublin administration to business organisations in the North which are trying to promote peace.

The UUP has embarked on a process of widespread consultation and there will soon be an event of major historical and symbolic significance when Mr Trimble and his colleagues meet Catholic Church leaders at Ara Coeli, the Archbishop's residence in Armagh.

The process of consultation also includes meetings with leaders of the other main churches, community and business organisations, the Orange Order and others. The executive of the UUP is due to meet on September 6th. This meeting was arranged some time ago and there is no guarantee that it will take a definitive decision on the party's approach to the Stormont talks.

"We're treading very carefully", said Mr Dermot Nesbitt, who is co-ordinating the UUP consultation exercise. "We will have to judge September 15th when it comes." He stressed that the process of consultation was a very genuine one. The meetings had lasted for up to two hours and views had been exchanged on the difficulties and opportunities of the situation.

When Mr Trimble returns from his holiday late next week he will find that the basic problems he left behind remain unresolved. He faces the great challenge of leading a relatively small and internationally somewhat isolated community into a political process which contains dangers as well as opportunities.