David Trimble's chances of survival today may hinge more on the attitude adopted by his influential but anxious supporters than on his obdurate enemies, writes Northern Editor Gerry Moriarty
The question Mr David Trimble must have been asking himself in recent days is: where are my friends?
His prospective nemesis, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, was in gung-ho form on BBC Radio Ulster at 8 a.m. yesterday, telling Northern Ireland that, while he would meet the First Minister later in the day, he was in no mood to compromise.
Coleraine Ulster Unionist MLA Mr David McClarty then came on to bat for his leader. Mr McClarty is a genuine and amiable politician who firmly believes in the Belfast Agreement, but he is no Brian Lara.
An Ulster Unionist source explained his appearance as being due to the top-order players deciding for tactical reasons not to go to the crease on Mr Trimble's behalf too early.
But this match has been running all week, and during these difficult political innings there was little evidence of the heavy-hitters. Where were his fellow ministers on the Northern Executive, Reg Empey and Michael McGimpsey and Dermot Nesbitt? Why didn't they come forward to try to rout his tormentors?
Mr McGimpsey did have a few comforting words to say on BBC Radio Ulster yesterday evening, but it could hardly be portrayed as a stirring defence of his leader.
Mr Trimble realises that this Ulster Unionist Council is no longer simply a case of another battle in the war of attrition between the pro-agreement and anti-agreement wings of the party.
There are two linked issues which must cause him to fear for his leadership. Previous Ulster Unionist Councils were about the agreement, but this one is about the election. And elections are often a time when party comes before principle.
Previously, too, he could assure party grandees that he was the best man to lead the party. Now the grandees are not so sure.
That explains why on Thursday evening Mr Trimble started making overtures to Mr Donaldson, a move which must have stuck in his craw. At other critical Ulster Unionist Councils Mr Trimble was forced to adopt some of his in-house opponents' tactical clothing, but he always ensured that whatever motion was passed by the council was his motion, not Jeffrey's.
Some of Mr Donaldson's own supporters in the past accused the Lagan Valley MP of lacking the killer instinct when he had an opportunity to stick the dagger between Mr Trimble's shoulder-blades.
But this time Mr Donaldson, with David Burnside and Arlene Foster and other senior players in the No camp standing beside him, has a lean and hungry look. And to his Cassius there are some in the Yes camp considering acting the part of Brutus.
Mr Donaldson and Mr Trimble, along with senior party officers from the two wings of Ulster Unionism, met at Hillsborough yesterday afternoon. Other discussions on the margins, involving some of the main dramatis personae, were expected to take place last night and probably up to and even during the council meeting today.
At the Hillsborough meeting there was no sign of any compromise motion. Mr Trimble has stated that any attempt to force Sinn Féin out of the Executive now would be counter-productive and damaging to unionism, but he wants to reserve the right to initiate such action at a time of his own choosing.
Mr Donaldson wants to initiate such action straight away. While Mr Donaldson wasn't planning to reveal his strategy until this morning, Mr Burnside explained: "There is a wide divergence within the party on tactics, there is no doubt about it. The Jeffrey, Burnside, Arlene Foster camp, as it is called, wants urgent, defined sanctions against republicans, starting immediately."
If Mr Donaldson continues to shout "no surrender" to Mr Trimble's request for an amended compromise motion, then the First Minister must either bow to Mr Donaldson or battle on his own separate motion.
The first option would damage Mr Trimble's credibility, possibly fatally. The second option means that there has to be a vote, and while another 55/45 per cent result in Mr Trimble's favour would be a victory, it could be a Pyrrhic one, where in the weeks to come the suits might say: "Well fought, David, but enough is enough."
If it comes to succession stakes, the favourite option at the moment is the so-called dream ticket of Jeffrey Donaldson as Ulster Unionist leader and Reg Empey as First Minister, which at the very least would create the illusion of unifying both wings of the party ahead of Assembly elections.
But that's being premature. There is still fight in Mr Trimble. To be assured of his leadership, he needs to win well today, perhaps topping a 60 per cent vote. One supporter summed it up thus: "He needs to be at his very best in front of the council. He needs to be on the top of his game, he needs to be fired up."
Little wonder then that Mr Trimble has been feeling isolated these days. He is said to be edgy and annoyed, but it is at times like these that the First Minister can be at his most cunning and oratorically powerful. But will that be sufficient to satisfy his influential friends, whatever about his enemies?