Serious behind-the-scenes talks are under way on reuniting the Ulster Unionist Party around a new hardline position on IRA decommissioning, The Irish Times has learned.
If successful, the high-level talks could lead to agreement at Saturday's Ulster Unionist Council meeting on the party's phased withdrawal from the institutions established under the Belfast Agreement. Such a decision could lead to the suspension - and possible collapse - of the Northern Ireland Executive by mid-December.
The unity moves represent a significant acknowledgement of anti-agreement sentiment within the party. They also reflect a darkening mood in some sections of the pro-agreement camp about Mr David Trimble's ability to survive in government with Sinn Fein without a speedy breakthrough on the arms issue.
Overtures to the leading dissident MP, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, within the past three days coincided with the disclosure to The Irish Times that "an inner cabal" of four or five senior UUP figures has been separately discussing the options which would face the party should Mr Trimble be forced from the leadership between now and next March.
March has loomed large in internal party discussions over recent weeks. It is the month designated for both the annual meeting of the ruling council and the next scheduled leadership election. Until the past few days, it had seemed that Mr Trimble's strategy was geared to that month, with one close ally confirming he expected Mr Trimble "to put his leadership on the line for March". However, such a timetable was dismissed over the weekend both by Mr Donaldson and by Mr Trimble's deputy, Mr John Taylor. Crucially, it appears that some of Mr Trimble's strongest supporters in the Assembly now share Mr Donaldson's stated view that a March deadline would fall impossibly close to the start of the local government, and probable general election, campaigns.
One Assembly source last night confirmed that the push for unity was fuelled by fears of possible electoral "meltdown" next year.
Acknowledging that Mr Trimble's existing support, at just 53 per cent , was "not enough", he said: "If we have another showdown on Saturday, it's probably going to fall 51/49 either way. We can't go on like that. That's no basis for going to the country."
The Ulster Unionist leader and First Minister only recently repeated his opposition to "issuing ultimata" or "setting deadlines" for IRA compliance on decommissioning. The British government is desperately anxious that he should not do so, sharing Dublin's view that a unionist-imposed deadline would be counter-productive. It seems certain, however, that a clear definition of what is meant by decommissioning, and a precise timetable for its achievement, will be the price demanded by the coalition led by Mr Donaldson and the Rev Martin Smyth for any closing of the ranks on Saturday.
Mr Donaldson is known to share the view of Mr David Burnside, the party's defeated candidate in the recent South Antrim by-election, that decommissioning should mean "hundreds of guns and large quantities of Semtex". Sources close to the Lagan Valley MP last night predicted there would be no agreement on the motion to go before Saturday's meeting "unless it spells out what we mean by decommissioning, and the modalities and timetable by which it is to be done".
Mr Trimble might yet decide that accommodating the views of his opponents is not possible and that he has no alternative but to face them down once again. The critical question prompted by the latest internal party manoeuvres is whether he can count on previously staunch allies if he does so.