UUP rank and file still willing to follow the leader

Three years ago at the Ulster Unionist annual general meeting, the party's right wing dealt a devastating blow to their then …

Three years ago at the Ulster Unionist annual general meeting, the party's right wing dealt a devastating blow to their then leader.

A Young Unionist, Lee Reynolds, stood against James Molyneaux and although the UUP leader won easily, the challenge was deeply significant for a party renowned for its loyalty. Five months later, Mr Molyneaux announced his resignation.

David Trimble, who swept to power on an uncompromising, hardline ticket, is unlikely to face a similar challenge at today's a.g.m.

Internally, there is considerable concern about the direction of the peace process but most party members are still willing to support their leader's strategy.

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The right wing may stand a candidate to challenge one of the 14 sitting party officers but even if this limited rebellion does take place, Mr Trimble's position, in the immediate future anyway, seems secure.

"People were relieved when Trimble refused Clinton's request that he negotiate directly with Sinn Fein," says a leading UUP activist. "He certainly proved his mettle. The pressure on a unionist leader doesn't come much greater than that.

"David was seen to fight his corner and say `no' to the most powerful man in the world. That will win him a lot of brownie points."

Another prominent UUP member, however, remains suspicious that although Mr Trimble's performance at the talks has been acceptable so far, he might fall at the last hurdle and sign up to a settlement that many could not accept.

"David knows there is no chance of agreement with Sinn Fein but he is still hoping for an arrangement with the SDLP. He hasn't done anything at the talks so far that we would have major difficulties with but the last 72 hours of the negotiations will be vital.

"He could be tempted to give away a bit too much. He seems to think that he can do a deal with Bertie Ahern. He might agree to fairly substantial cross-Border bodies provided their decisions must be ratified by a Northern Ireland assembly. Such a proposition wouldn't be acceptable to many in this party."

Another source also believes Mr Trimble's ambition could push him into being "over-generous" at the negotiating table. The thought that he could be prime minister of Northern Ireland will be very appealing and he is more open to compromise now than ever.

"He loves mixing with the big boys - having access to the Prime Minister, dining with the Queen, receiving Christmas cards from President Clinton, and calling in to the White House.

"The two governments have grasped that this is his weakness and think it might work in their favour. Tony Blair will certainly put him under immense pressure over coming weeks."

But most unionist activists interviewed believed Mr Trimble would resist. While they did not completely trust him, they thought his pragmatic instincts would prevent him reaching a compromise with which grassroots would be unhappy.

"I don't know what David himself wants," says a councillor. "He is impossible to read. He is a very deep individual and nobody really knows him. But what he would like personally is irrelevant. He is not a stupid man. I don't think he will act against the party line.

"He knows his room to manoeuvre regarding a deal is minuscule. He is on a tight rein. He has no intention of becoming a sacrificial lamb in the quest for peace. At the end of the day, he will follow the party's wishes rather than attempt to lead it towards a grand compromise."

Most UUP right-wingers appeared to take comfort in the belief that no deal would be reached at the talks. "The gulf between the SDLP and the UUP is just too big. I don't see how it can be bridged," says one.

"Plenty of people in this party are very wary of Trimble," says a senior UUP politician. "He is a one-man band. He does not confide in his colleagues about important decisions. Despite a facade of democracy, nobody really knows what is going on.

"But what is preventing major internal problems for him is the belief that there is not going to be a deal anyway. Nationalists are asking for the moon. The gulf between them and us is too wide for even the most accommodating unionist leader to bridge."

A councillor on the party's liberal wing, however, fears that if the UUP leader does not secure a deal, the right wing could sharpen its knives. "They might then consider moving against him.

"The criticisms Bob McCartney has made of our strategy have touched a chord with many. There is a big McCartney wing in this party. If Trimble fails to get anywhere at the talks, these people will say that it was all a waste of time and McCartney's analysis was correct.

"It is essential that when these talks end, Trimble leaves on red, white and blue principles and is not seen to have weakened the Union by negotiating in the first place."

While there is certainly no organised campaign of opposition against the leader building in the party, the mood seems to be one of reluctant loyalty.

"I don't think any of us are really mad about him," says a UUP member in Belfast. "The far right feel he isn't the man they elected. They think he has betrayed them over decommissioning and sitting down at the negotiating table with Sinn Fein.

"The broad right of the party aren't challenging him but are suspicious of his intentions. The liberal wing of the party are glad he hasn't turned out as badly as they feared but they know he isn't one of their own.