Seán Moransenses a changing of the guard is on the cards but wonders from where it will come
If we are on the threshold of a new era in the Bank of Ireland football championship it's hard to identify the harbingers. It's easy to see where the guard might be about to change but a great deal more difficult to see who is going to do it.
For the best part of over 10 years the game has moved in easily recognised patterns. The sequential winning of six All-Irelands by Meath, Kerry and Galway gave way to a new hierarchy.
The past four All-Irelands have alternated between Tyrone and Kerry. Armagh may have only one title but Joe Kernan's team have been such an influence on the championship while compiling a remarkable record in Ulster - the province's first three-in-a-row since Down nearly 50 years ago and a stretch since 1999 of six Anglo-Celt Cups in eight summers.
It's an extraordinarily sustained run in a province that as recently as 11 years ago hadn't seen a county retain the title for two decades. Then again no county is more aware of the unsatisfactory conversion rate into Sam Maguire conclusions than Armagh themselves.
What has sustained the All-Ireland patterns is the difficulty of winning back-to-back titles and the motivational effect of not winning and especially losing finals. Even the finals have been restricted access. The three counties above plus Mayo are the only colours we've seen flying at senior All-Irelands for the past five years.
The GAA cannot dictate who wins trophies no matter how fervently officials might occasionally hope for individual counties to do well, but there is concern about the predictability of football as well as other aspects of the big-ball game.
GAA president Nickey Brennan pointed out recently that, for all its greater demographic spread, football is as restricted as hurling in terms of genuine All-Ireland candidates. At the recent annual congress he included an interesting passage in his presidential address.
"Many people I speak to on the matter have expressed concerns at the way the game is being coached and played, with it appears less emphasis on the traditional skills of catching and kicking. Some games are now more akin to basketball than Gaelic football. I fully accept that the game has evolved to a combination of many different skills, but I share the views of many that this should not be at the expense of the traditional great and attractive skills of the game.
"I will be pursuing this matter in the year ahead and we also need to consider if the appointment of a National Gaelic Football Development Officer, similar to the role currently undertaken by Paudie Butler for hurling, might be appropriate."
This comes shortly after the curious assertion by the director general, Liam Mulvihill, in his annual report that football should have more stringent disciplinary rules than hurling.
Genetically engineering the game by rule changes hasn't always worked in the past. For instance the restrictions on hand-passing introduced in the NFL during the mid 1990s didn't seem to have a significant impact and for two successive years two of the more prominent exponents of the short ball game, Derry and Donegal, reached the League final.
Tactics evolve more robustly when answering the specific needs of teams. Last year saw one of the football's great paradigm shifts with the reshuffle of Kieran Donaghy to full forward and the devastating consequences that had for Kerry's opponents.
It will be interesting to see how the All-Ireland champions respond to the whole host of new challenges facing them this season, even disregarding for the moment the now 17-years gap since a county last retained the All-Ireland.
Donaghy will be no secret weapon this time around but to be fair to the player he was a marked man from last year's quarter-final win over Armagh but being forewarned didn't help to forearm the remaining opponents.
The change of management - the first time in 12 years that someone has stepped down after coaching a team to the Sam Maguire - is intriguing. Aside from the difficulties of taking over a successful team there is the competing pressure of the exceptional record of managers in their first year - three of the last five All-Irelands have been won by them.
Then there is the irony that Pat O'Shea, one of the top technical coaches in the game, hasn't always sounded convinced by the Donaghy option. Asked if he felt constrained by its success last year, he replied:
"It only confines you if you allow it. We would hope to improve other aspects of our game. The whole idea is that you have a number of options so that it's not just one particular tactic because if that's stopped you're in trouble, but I think what Kieran gave Kerry last year was a primary ball winner in a very important position. If we can accommodate that with maybe a little bit of extra movement and controlled ball then maybe we might have more options."
The problems for Kerry's peers Armagh and Tyrone is that they have fewer options. Armagh, having struggled through the league under-strength, face a buoyant Donegal in the first round and will be without two of their best forwards, Ronan Clarke and Brian Mallon for another month anyway.
Tyrone are struggling with poor form and enduring injury concerns. Mickey Harte has the track record of having improvised a way through the qualifiers, finding out his best deployment as he went.
With all the talent at their disposal the team can't be written off in a championship that has become so organic but success will require further feats of management because the lead-in to the championship hasn't been ideal.
There will, however, be one new development this championship. In recent years progress in the National League has developed a far closer link with the rest of the season than was the case in pre-qualifier times. That link will be either broken this summer or else provide some new contenders.
Whether Mayo count as new contenders is a different matter. So far John O'Mahony has done all that could have been expected of him in terms of rehabilitating the bruised sensibilities after two All-Ireland humiliations in three years. He has also tried to rebuild the spine of the team and will get the best out of the players.
But even if the league final defeat wasn't a serious setback it did illustrate the thin enough range of options available. The trouble for Mayo is that they have to go all the way to the third Sunday in September to substantiate any improvement and that's a long journey.
It begins with a very significant first step to be taken in Salthill later this month and is reminiscent of O'Mahony's first championship match in charge of Galway nine years ago. Then he went to Castlebar and kick-started what would be an All-Ireland season.
This may be an open championship but the question remains: is there an All-Ireland in the current Mayo panel - regardless of how well they're managed.
At least the Connacht champions are staying the course. The teams that were thought most likely to step up 12 months ago have had a sorry time of it.
Dublin's difficulties are well documented as are Cork's and Galway's and all three sustained dispiriting championship defeats in 2006.
Cork emerged best but during the recent league produced little evidence that they had unearthed the enhanced attacking threat Billy Morgan had been hoping for.
Donegal will be seen as the best chance of upsetting the apple cart in Ulster and maybe even beyond. The NFL success, which saw them unbeaten throughout the season, was greatly assisted by the return of Brendan Devenney, Kevin Cassidy and Colm McFadden after recent estrangement. They look incomparably stronger than in last year's championship but Devenney's long-term stomach injury is a serious setback - even if he decides to play through it.
Suspicions of mental fragility will remain in terms of delivery on big championship days and discipline but Brian McIver's team have positioned themselves well.
The vacancy sign has gone up but there's no stampede of convincing applications to succeed Kerry.