EUROPEAN UNION:The bloc proved it was still working despite the uncertainty caused by Ireland's No to Lisbon, writes Jamie Smyth in Brussels
The EU suffered a crisis of confidence when Irish voters rejected the Lisbon Treaty in mid 2008, casting doubt on its ability to reform. However, two major international crises in the latter half of the year, continued stability in the volatile Balkans and a final EU agreement on cutting greenhouse gas emissions underlined the union's worth.
The year began with the first of the new member states that joined the EU in 2004 taking over the rotating six-month presidency. Fears that Slovenia, a state with just two million inhabitants and a small diplomatic service, could not handle the pressure of steering Europe through difficult times were unfounded. Under the ice cool leadership of Slovene prime minister Janez Jana the union skilfully supervised Kosovo's declaration of independence while offering the hand of friendship to a deeply unhappy Serbia.
"This is not a decision against Serbia. Slovenia is not doing this for itself, we are doing this on the basis of European and international policy," said Slovene foreign minister Dimitrij Rupel when his country became the first former Yugoslav state to recognise Kosovo on March 5th, two weeks after the declaration of independence.
With tensions running high among ethnic Serbs in Kosovo and presidential and parliamentary elections taking place in Serbia in February and May respectively, Jansa had his work cut out trying to ensure hardliners did not prosper. He also had to manage a divided EU with five member states refusing to recognise Kosovan independence for fear it would set a precedent for other separatist movements in Europe.
Nonetheless, the EU sent its biggest ever civilian mission to Kosovo to bolster peacebuilding efforts, enabling 2,000 EU officials such as judges and administrators to begin work in the region earlier this month.
In the run up to the parliamentary elections the union also took a controversial decision to sign a stabilisation and association agreement with Serbia, a first step towards future membership. The decision was taken despite serious concerns raised by the Netherlands, which has grave doubts on whether Belgrade was complying fully with the war crimes tribunal in The Hague. Under a deal agreed by EU foreign ministers, the pact would not be ratified nor would its benefits be available to Serbia until it was judged to have fully co-operated with the tribunal.
The gamble worked and the May elections saw a pro-western government take power, which within weeks delivered war crimes suspect Radovan Karadzic to the Hague after 12 years on the run. Once again the lure of EU membership, or soft power, had helped to bolster democracy and peace in Europe's neighbourhood.
The new institutional architecture laid out in the Lisbon reform treaty would have strengthened the EU's capacity to act in foreign affairs, according to its proponents in the referendum campaign that got under way in Ireland in May. But it was the No campaign that won the popular vote on 12th June with the Irish electorate rejecting the treaty by a margin of 53 per cent to 47 per cent on a 53 per cent turnout. The result sent shockwaves throughout the union and initially provoked angry responses from foreign politicians. This turned to disbelief when it emerged that people feared Lisbon would promote conscription or abortion.
It became clear there was no appetite among EU leaders to renegotiate Lisbon or give it up. And when French president Nicolas Sarkozy took over the union's presidency in July a plan was quickly forged between Paris and Dublin to rescue the treaty and lay the groundwork for a second vote in Ireland in 2009.
Sarkozy flew to Dublin in July to listen to Cowen and hear the views of the No campaign. Cowen flew to Paris twice and later toured other European capitals in an attempt to win support for Irish concessions that could overturn the result. At the December summit, Cowen agreed to re-run the referendum before next November in return for legally binding guarantees in the areas of neutrality, ethical issues and taxation. He also won a commitment that each state could appoint a commissioner to the EU executive after 2014.
Sarkozy described Cowen as "brave" for risking a second vote - probably in October 2009 - that could spell the end of his leadership if it goes wrong. But the risks for Ireland and the union could be even greater next year if the Irish electorate does not change its mind on the Lisbon Treaty.
A second No would isolate Ireland within the union and call into question the EU's ability to reform its decision-making structures and to adapt to new challenges. It may also provoke some states to move ahead and integrate further, a move that could weaken the union's cohesiveness and boost the powers of big states.
The twin challenges of Russia's invasion of Georgia in August and the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, which sparked a major financial crisis, strengthened the resolve of EU leaders to have Lisbon implemented. Sarkozy's mission to Moscow in August on behalf of the EU to negotiate a ceasefire with Russian president Dmitry Medvedev illustrated the value of having an internationally acclaimed president of the council. Diplomats warned that if the Czech Republic had been in the EU chair (it takes over the presidency next month) it is possible that Russia would not have entertained the EU request for a ceasefire.
Under Lisbon a president of the council would be appointed for a 2½-year term, offering the EU more continuity, profile and authority in foreign affairs, say its supporters.
Sarkozy's high octane approach to the global financial crisis and climate change also demonstrated the union's value during difficult times. Together with British prime minister Gordon Brown he helped craft an EU rescue plan for the banking sector and the wider economy. The European Central Bank also played a key role in providing liquidity to the banking sector in several states, including Ireland. Iceland was not so lucky. It suffered a major economic collapse, prompting many of its politicians to consider a bid to join the union.
With George Bush a lame duck president the EU managed to claim leadership on the economy, making an ambitious call for the reshaping of the world's financial architecture. Sarkozy also negotiated a final deal on the EU's climate change package, proving that in spite of its institutional difficulties, the union is working.