CHINA: China's ageing communist leaders are debating who should succeed them. Asia Correspondent, Miriam Donohoe, looks at their options
An intense leadership battle is underway in the Chinese Communist Party ahead of a congress in November to decide China's "Fourth Generation" of rulers.
Three weeks of secret talks on the leadership changes have ended in the Chinese seaside resort of Beidaihe, but no clues have been given as to what was agreed, fuelling rumours of disagreement in the Chinese corridors of power.
Chinese leaders gather in Beidaihe every July in a secluded complex of villas complete with a private beach. It is here where the higher echelons of the Communist party plot and shape policy annually.
It is understood that the meeting agreed that the five-yearly Communist Party Congress would be convened on November 8th. But while it had been presumed that the Chinese president and communist party chief, Mr Jiang Zemin, and other elderly leaders, would step down from their posts at the congress, speculation is increasing that Mr Jiang is determined to hold on to the reins of power.
Mr Jiang holds three powerful positions, that of state president, Communist Party general secretary and Central Military Commission chief.
The Congress is expected not only to finalise changes in the leadership, but is also to decide whether to include in the party constitution Mr Jiang's plan to allow private entrepreneurs to join the organisation.
It has been an open secret that the Chinese Vice President, Mr Hu Jintao, was being groomed to succeed Mr Jiang as party leader and state president and that other senior leaders such as Mr Li Peng, chairman of the National People's Congress, and the prime minister, Mr Zhu Rongji, would also be replaced, completing the first orderly succession of power in Communist China.
With other retirements there would be five spare seats in the party's top decision-making body, the politburo, and retiring leaders were each expected to nominate a successor to maintain their political clout and protect their personal interests.
However the assumption that power would pass on to younger men has been undermined by a growing propaganda campaign in the last month lauding the achievements of Mr Jiang.
Analysts say other factors which indicate he may not go is the president's ego, which has become a big problem, and the fact that there does not seem to be a faction powerful enough within the leadership to stop him if he decides to stay on.
The expectation had been that while Mr Jiang would give up the party leadership post and step down as president, he would retain a grip on power by hanging on to his third position as chairman of the central military commission.
Rising tensions with Taiwan are thought to have strengthened the case to keep Mr Jiang on. There is also speculation that the prime minister, Mr Zhu, would stay in power too to help steer China through its first years as a member of the World Trade Organisation.
There is some concern that the rising uncertainty over the leadership could affect the economy, with western companies with huge investment in China starting to ask what is going on and what the potential downside might be.
Foreign observers say that Mr Jiang's failure to go would send a signal to the outside world that China is still unable to handle internal change and would dim the prospects for reform.
However, Chinese observers are taking a different view, saying the succession is more concerned with domestic politics rather than impressing the West.
So far in China there has been no official publicity about the Fourth Generation leadership with state media ordered not to mention the term "Fourth Generation leadership" since early last year.
Mr Jiang's supporters argue that heir apparent Mr Hu Jintao lacks the experience to handle mounting unemployment, a hawkish US administration and a standoff with Taiwan. Calls by the army and party for him to stay on may also tempt Mr Jiang to retain his position as party chief.
However it has not all gone the president's way. Anti-Jiang sentiment has also intensified in the last month, with petitions from overseas Chinese students and dissidents urging Mr Jiang to step down to allow younger leaders to introduce more progressive political and social reforms.
A letter by a group of anonymous party elders opposed Mr Jiang's alleged plan to stay on and accused him of betraying the party by allowing entrepreneurs to join.
Beijing-based international relations professor and consultant, Dr Brendan Smith, told The Irish Times that it was always hard to predict the succession of Chinese communist leaders.
He says in previous succession battles the clear favourite to take up the party presidency and leadership have lost.
"In some ways to be groomed as the successor of a retiring leader can be the kiss of death," he says. Dr Smith adds that while Vice President Mr Hu may be an unknown entity, the ability to rise to the top of one's political party should never be underestimated.
"To remain in and around the top of the political elite for almost a decade as Hu Jintao has done is a particular feat. He has managed to stay in this position due to his unstinting loyalty to the president."
Dr Smith points to the fact that the fourth generation of Chinese leaders will be the first not to have been actively engaged in the Communist revolution.
"Many in the new leadership will have suffered during the cultural revolution while coming to age politically under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping."
Dr Smith says Mr Hu's kind of political background should ensure a continuation of economic pragmatism to the leadership. Political reform would not be a priority per se with the new leadership, predicts Dr Smith.
"Given that there is still considerable infighting and jockeying for power positions amongst the new fourth generation, the third generation leaders will provide a steady and experienced hand in the transitional period. Indeed, this was essentially how Mr Jiang assumed his mantle of power after Deng Xiaoping's era."
At a later stage, the new team will be able to put their own mark on governing in China, he says. For the moment, the one certainty is that Mr Jiang is not going to quietly fade into the sunset.