EU view: The Socialist victory in Spain's general election has boosted hopes of an early agreement on the EU's constitutional treaty and shifted the political balance in Europe towards those who favour closer political integration.
The prime minister-elect, Mr José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, made clear yesterday his intention to reverse the foreign policy of his predecessor, Mr José María Aznar, and to restore Spain's traditionally close relationship with France and Germany.
"Spain will be more European than ever before," Mr Zapatero said.
Germany's chancellor, Mr Gerhard Schröder and the French president, Mr Jacques Chirac, were quick to congratulate Mr Zapatero on his victory. Mr Chirac and Mr Schröder will discuss the constitutional treaty when they meet today and officials in Paris and Berlin believe that Spain's change of government has improved the chances of finding a compromise on the issue of a new voting system in the Council of Ministers, where national governments meet.
France and Germany, in common with most EU member-states, want decisions to be carried by a double majority - a majority of member-states representing at least 60 per cent of the EU's population. Spain and Poland have been resisting any move away from the system of weighted votes agreed at Nice.
Mr Enrique Baron Crespo, the Spanish leader of the Socialist group in the European Parliament, said yesterday that the new government would change Spain's position on the voting system.
"We are in favour of the constitution. We are in favour of the double majority. We can discuss the percentages," he said in a German radio interview.
Poland's prime minister, Mr Leszek Miller, acknowledged yesterday that Spain's change of government could leave Warsaw isolated in the treaty negotiations.
"If it turns out that Spain changes its position on the European constitution, the worst that can happen to Poland is isolation," he said.
Germany has signalled its willingness to compromise on the precise form of the double majority system and the Irish presidency has floated a number of options, including increasing the number of member-states and lowering the population threshold required to pass any measure.
Spain's new government has promised to withdraw Spanish soldiers from Iraq, ending Madrid's foreign policy alliance with London and cooling relations with Washington. Mr Aznar angered France and Germany before the Iraq war by initiating a letter from eight European leaders distancing themselves from Franco-German opposition to the war.
Mr Zapatero is expected to return to the European policy pursued by Mr Aznar's Socialist predecessor, Mr Felipe Gonzales, who cultivated close relations with Paris and Berlin and was viewed as one of Europe's most integrationist leaders.
Mr Miguel Angel Moratinos, a former EU envoy to the Middle East, is tipped to become foreign minister, underscoring the message that Madrid is moving back into the EU's integrationist fold.
Spain's change of government has robbed Britain's Mr Tony Blair of one of his closest allies in Europe and ended the Blair-Aznar-Berlusconi alliance that pushed for more economic reform in the EU and closer relations with Washington.
The Taoiseach is expected to meet Mr Zapatero next week, a few days before Mr Ahern delivers a report on the treaty negotiations at an EU summit in Brussels. Irish officials welcomed Mr Zapatero's encouraging words about the constitutional treaty but warned that more movement was needed from all sides before the Taoiseach could recommend the resumption of formal negotiations.
For his part, the new Spanish prime minister indicated that concluding the treaty negotiations was a priority for his government as it seeks to reposition Spain within the EU.
"I want Europe to see us again as pro-European - my feeling is that the election result has caused surprise but a lot of satisfaction in Europe. I think we can reach an agreement which will maintain the balance of power for an enlarged Europe," he said.