THE REFERENDUM to reverse California's gay marriage law, which will be run on the same day as the US presidential race, is set to be lost, according to the latest polling figures.
In the Public Policy Institute of California poll, 52 per cent of Californians say that they will reject the bid to ban gay marriage, while 44 per cent want the referendum to pass, with a three-point margin of error.
Conservatives claim that the campaign to have Proposition 8 carried is being helped by the higher turnout expected from African-Americans and Hispanics, who tend to be conservative on social issues, to support Democrat Barack Obama.
Opponents of gay marriage, which was introduced in the summer after a state supreme court decision, have produced large numbers of advertisements in Spanish to encourage support from Hispanics.
Thousands of gay couples who have married in the state since June are nervously watching the outcome, since their legal status is uncertain if the referendum, known as Proposition 8, is passed.
Nearly $60 million has been spent by both sides to date, while Hollywood stars such as Brad Pitt, Steven Spielberg and Ellen DeGeneres and companies like Apple campaign to defeat the campaign.