Analysis: Voters say they were fooled a year ago and they're punishing Fianna Fail, the PDs - and Fine Gael. Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent, reports.
A year on from the general election, the public believes it was comprehensively codded by Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats in the course of the May 2002 campaign.
This belief is so widespread and has continued for so long that it appears pointless for the Government to continue to protest otherwise. Voters have made up their minds: the Coalition can only hope that in the run-up to the next general election it will matter a lot less to them than it does now.
On every issue, voters believe the Government is not delivering what it promised. Even allowing for voters' tendency to believe that all governments renege on promises, the fact that just 5 per cent believes the Coalition is delivering what it promised on health, with 92 per cent believing it is not, shows the extent of the disillusionment. Large majorities also believe the Government is reneging on promises on the economy, education and other areas.
The disillusionment has translated into a sustained slide in support for the Government, the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil. In the October 2002 poll, support for the Coalition, Mr Ahern and his party hit their lowest levels since Mr Ahern assumed power in 1997. In February this year they fell to new lows and this time, satisfaction with the Government and Taoiseach has slumped to yet newer lows.
While the Progressive Democrats have largely escaped unscathed from previous polls showing dissatisfaction with the Government, this time they do not. Their support is down two points to 4 per cent, while Ms Harney's satisfaction rating of 45 per cent is unchanged since February, but remains the lowest since the aftermath of the O'Flaherty affair in autumn 2001.
Meanwhile, PD supporters themselves are unhappy with the Government's performance with 58 per cent dissatisfied and just 42 per cent satisfied.
Yet the immediate effect of the poll showing the Government's dismal performance at this point is to suggest a crisis for Fine Gael. As the Government's ratings slide, the main Opposition party and its leader, Enda Kenny, are managing to lose support as well. Labour has overtaken Fine Gael as the second-largest party on this showing, something it managed only once before - in November 1994.
That was just before the collapse of the Fianna Fáil/Labour coalition propelled Fine Gael into government and revived its fortunes. There is no similar surprise rescue on the horizon now.
Michael Noonan registered a satisfaction rating of 31 per cent before Fine Gael's dismal May election. Since then his successor Mr Kenny has registered 28 per cent (September 2002), 32 per cent (October 2002) and now 29 per cent. In his first couple of polls there was high number of "don't knows" in relation to Mr Kenny, reflecting the fact that he was a newcomer. Now the don't knows have come down, but they have moved into the category expressing dissatisfaction with his performance.
Fine Gael support is particularly low in all groups aged under 49, rising only among older voters.
In Dublin, Labour's core support of 19 per cent is almost double the 10 per cent for Fine Gael. Across all urban areas Labour shows 17 per cent core support, with Fine Gael on 10 per cent. The retreat of Fine Gael support into older, rural groups will be particularly alarming for it. Urban areas appear to be the most fertile ground for the Opposition parties, with dissatisfaction with the Government rising to 75 per cent in Dublin.
It is possible that the six-point boost for Labour was artificially inflated by the fact that sampling for this poll took place in the immediate aftermath of the party's conference in Killarney, during which the party and its leader received substantial publicity. However, previous polls have shown that party conferences do not give parties an automatic poll boost, and certainly not one of this magnitude.
Encouraging for Labour is that this increase seems to be part of a pattern rather than a flash in the pan. The party registered 14 per cent support last September and October, the highest since January 2001. This rose to 16 per cent in February of this year and 22 per cent now.
This is just the second poll in which Mr Pat Rabbitte's standing was measured and it shows a modest increase in his satisfaction rating.
In strict percentage terms, the poll appears to show the prospect of an alternative government being elected.
Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party have 48 per cent support between them, compared to just 36 per cent for Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats.
However it is not as simple as that. The Fine Gael/Labour/Green combination currently holds just 58 Dáil seats. Without a Fine Gael recovery it has no prospect of winning the 26 extra seats needed for a bare Dáil majority.
If Fine Gael and Labour publicly declared themselves as an alternative government after next year's local elections, this could boost Fine Gael's prospects of recovery.
But Labour has yet to decide whether it wishes to give Fine Gael a boost in this fashion, or whether, having overtaken it in this poll, it wants to continue making inroads into its support. If it does, it will find it difficult to put forward the alternative government favoured by Mr Rabbitte.
Sinn Féin's support has remained steady at 9 per cent. The Green Party, however, will be concerned not just at the fall of two points in its support to 4 per cent, but by the slide in approval for its leader, Mr Trevor Sargent. From a 43 per cent satisfaction rating last October he fell to 36 per cent in February to 26 per cent now.
Health is the number one issue which, according to voters, will influence how they will vote.
The publication by the Government over the next few weeks of a series of reports on the health service, followed by a promised plan of action, therefore assumes crucial importance if the Coalition is to win back public support.