The alternative coalition is gaining credibility but still needs to convince, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
The Government parties would have us believe that a Fine Gael/Labour coalition would bring high taxes and economic ruin.
In contrast, the Opposition would have us believe that this Government is uniquely incompetent and wasteful of public money and that the voters are crying out for change.
Amid the sound and fury of Government and Opposition preparing for an election campaign, the voters are saying they don't really believe it matters all that much, and that they don't buy the rhetoric.
Just 9 per cent think the outcome will make a major difference to their lives with 16 per cent thinking it will make a major difference to the way the country is run.
Some 85 per cent think it will make only a minor difference or no difference at all to their lives, with 78 per cent believing it will make little or no difference to how the country is run.
The message is clear to both Government and Opposition parties: neither has yet convinced the voters that their being elected to power next year would be a transforming event.
Each has a year in which to try to do so. The Government is likely to concentrate on arguing that a change would involve handing over power to untested people who can't be trusted to manage the economy. Next winter they will use a series of pre-planned events to try to emphasise their management credentials.
November will see the publication of Government spending estimates for 2007; December will see the last budget before the election with Minister for Finance Brian Cowen again having substantial resources to spend on childcare, pension increases and other electorally sensitive issues. Then, in January, they are expected to publish a National Development Plan (NDP), announcing planned road, rail and public transport spending for the next five years.
The aspirational transport plan published earlier this year was treated with some derision and scepticism.
The Government will have to ensure that the projects and targets in the NDP are credible, for it will provide a substantial part of their election campaign a few months later.
The Opposition, meanwhile, must show voters that they have something exciting to offer that makes a change worthwhile - something that convinces voters that electing them may after all make a major difference to their lives and to how the country is run. Imaginative and convincing proposals for how to deal with health, crime and public service inadequacies could yet make voters believe there is something worth voting for.
For Opposition parties, in particular, there is a second message. While a greater number currently would like to see a coalition involving Fine Gael, Labour and possibly the Green Party elected, a significant number of these believe the current Fianna Fáil/PD coalition will actually win. Some 18 per cent of those who want to see the alternative government elected believe this will not happen, and that the current Coalition will be returned.
In contrast, just 8 per cent of supporters of the current Coalition think the alternative will be elected.
So Fine Gael and Labour have a job to do to convince those who would like to support them that they have a real chance of success. If they are not seen as a credible prospect, then the support shown in this poll could ebb away.
This poll in itself may help them in this task, as it is the first since 2002 to suggest they do indeed have a real chance.
This poll also shows the issues voters are concerned about. There may be some surprise that when asked what issue would be their priority when they came to vote, just 10 per cent said it was to ensure Ireland's economic success continues.
This may well reflect a view that no matter who forms the next government, the economy will continue to do well. A previous Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll last September showed voters saw little difference between the two coalition options on offer on the question of which would better handle the economy.
By far the biggest issue according to voters is the improvement of public services such as health, transport and education. The 60 per cent who opted for this is obviously a greater proportion than went for all other options put together. Despite all the pre-election Opposition shrillness about crime - an echo of the pre-1997 atmosphere - just 12 per cent saw crime reduction as their number one issue.
Similarly, the constant Opposition hammering of the Government over alleged profligate public spending has only moved 9 per cent to see it as the number one issue. And just 7 per cent see keeping taxes low as the number one concern.
Combined with the party support figures published yesterday, these results reveal an electorate willing to contemplate a change of government. But for Fine Gael to copperfasten its boost in support and for Labour to hold its respectable 15 per cent in an election, these parties need to convince more voters that they offer a change that will indeed make a difference to their lives and how the country is run.
On the other hand the Government needs to convince voters that a new coalition will indeed involve a change, but a change for the worse.