There are "definite indications" that the accuracy of Irish weather forecasts is improving, according to Met Eireann's annual report. Forecasting in Dublin last year was more accurate than at any other time in the past five years, says the report, published today.
Met Eireann admits it has made "occasional catastrophic failures" in the past but says it had predicted "all of the significant weather events" last year.
Forecasts in Cork were less accurate last year than in 1997.
A spokesman explained the Cork forecasts were still less reliable than those in Dublin because the weather varied more rapidly due to geographical factors.
Despite last year's blip, forecasts in Cork have also improved over the last five years, the report said. There were also "definite indications of an improving trend in the five-year data" relating to the accuracy of forecasts, according to the report, which singled out the early warnings the service gave for the St Stephen's Day storms last year. However, figures in the report show that one in three of the forecasts for Dublin are more than 2C out when it comes to predicting the minimum temperature the following day.
Predicting the temperature two days in advance proved even more difficult, with the service missing the right answer by more than 2C almost 45 per cent of the time.
Next-day predictions for maximum temperatures last year proved more accurate - they were less than 2C out in 80 per cent of cases. Such predictions were also accurate for two days in advance almost 75 per cent of the time.
Met Eireann's commercial revenue exceeded £700,000 for the first time last year.
The figure for commercial revenue excludes that from civil aviation, which normally generates receipts of £4.5 million a year.
The biggest generators of commercial revenue were what the service describes as "interrogable media" - primarily the Weather-dial premium-rate telephone and fax services.
The report says 1998 was "particularly notable" for the service because it won contracts to provide forecasts and graphics to both RTE and TV3 in competitive tendering. The service succeeded in three aspects of the RTE tender - data, forecasts and graphics and graphics platform.
However, Met Eireann failed to secure a contract for presentation on air. A spokesman Eireann said yesterday that he expected new presenters not trained in meteorology would start appearing on Network 2 next month. RTE said last night that none of its new weather presenters had been appointed yet. The report says Met Eireann's "only constraint" in seeking new business is "a lack of staff resources in the technical and meteorological areas".
The service had under-spent its allocation for the year because "some of the larger projects planned for 1998 did not progress as much as expected, mainly due to the shortage of personnel in these areas". The report adds that for some years it has been apparent that the general forecasting division (GFD) of the service was "close to saturation in terms of workload".
While individuals within the GFD had taken a number of initiatives during the year to improve the situation, it had not been possible "to pursue major streamlining of forecasting development initiatives".
There was a "substantial increase" last year in the number of inquiries from the Garda and it appeared to have become "standard practice for them to seek a weather report for the times of serious crimes", the report said. But fees from court appearances accruing to the service had "dwindled as a result of staff shortages".
