Elaine Keogh
More than two million Irish people could face compulsory resettlement should an accident occur at the Wylfa nuclear power plant on the island of Anglesey off the Welsh coast.
That is according to a radioactive fallout scenario prepared for a seminar later this month on the implications for Ireland of a new UK nuclear programme.
Maps prepared to illustrate the scenario indicate that an accident at the nuclear reactor, which lies just 96 kilometres across the Irish Sea from Dublin, could result in large parts of central and southern Ireland becoming contaminated enough to require public evacuation.
The scenario is based on one of the worst case assumptions, that easterly winds would carry fallout towards Ireland. Among the counties most affected would be Meath, north Co Dublin, Kildare, Leitrim and Cavan.
The All-Ireland Nuclear Free Local Authorities Forum (NFLA) commissioned the maps. They claim assumptions about how radiation would be deposited were based on an approach accepted by the UN Development Programme, as experienced after the Chernobyl reactor accident 20 years ago.
The NFLA believes the fallout could reach as far south as Co Cork and people living in parts of Cavan, Monaghan, Meath, Longford, Offaly, Leitrim, and Roscommon, Armagh and Fermanagh could face compulsory resettlement to protect them from radiation.
Dr Gordon Thompson, an international expert in nuclear safety and security based at the Institute for Resource and Security Studies at Cambridge, Massachusetts told the NFLA that, "the Caesium-137 isotope dominated the off-site radiation exposure from the 1986 Chernobyl accident, and the same would be true for a range of possible release scenarios at a UK commercial nuclear power plant.
"The Chernobyl pattern of deposition has the virtue of being a real case - the only one of its kind. Thus, it can be instructive to present this case as the Irish forum is doing. A seismic event is a potential initiator. There are others," he added.
The NFLA has been campaigning against the UK government developing a new generation of nuclear reactors. "The British government does not need to build new nuclear power stations to meet its future energy needs. Radiation does not respect international boundaries, and a new nuclear programme in the UK would pose unacceptable risks to people and the environment in the Republic of Ireland," said Louth county councillor and chairman of the NFLA, Michael O'Dowd.
"Fallout patterns following a reactor accident would depend upon wind direction and strength, rainfall, and the age and history of the reactor," stated Dr Ian Taylor of Keep Wales Nuclear Free, who was involved in the production of the maps.
"Of course, the weather pattern and pattern of radioactive fallout following an accident at a UK nuclear site would not exactly mimic that following the Chernobyl incident, but plotting the Chernobyl contamination patterns is a valid exercise and shows just how far-reaching the effects could be."
The fallout maps will be presented at the seminar "A New UK Nuclear Programme: Implications for Ireland" at the end of the month.