MIDDLE EAST:THE WEST Bank has not become a model of effective Palestinian control and good governance, although gains have been made under prime minister Salam Fayyad, writes Michael Jansen.
This is the conclusion of the International Crisis Group (ICG) in its 44-page report, Ruling Palestine II: the West Bank Model? Part I, issued last March, which covered Gaza.
The ICG argues that the West Bank model, endorsed by Israel and the international community, "has yet to prove itself" and to expand beyond the municipal limits of the northern town of Jenin. There and in the city of Nablus, administration and security are supposed to be provided by the caretaker government formed a year ago by Mr Fayyad to challenge Hamas rule in Gaza.
So far, he has managed to put order in finances, institute reforms, impose control over armed factions and reduce the influence of Hamas.
However, the ICG reveals Israeli curfews and night raids have prompted Palestinians to refer to a "part-time occupation". Israeli incursions, settlement activity, checkpoints, barriers and lack of progress in negotiations undermine Mr Fayyad.
He "is banking on the expectation that Palestinian performance, principally on the security front, eventually will underscore the senselessness of many Israeli measures, convince Israel to loosen its grip and perhaps agree to political concessions", and if such concessions are not forthcoming, encourage the international community to exert pressure on Israel. The ICG says many Palestinians fear Mr Fayyad will "end up administering the West Bank on Israel's behalf".
Hamas, the ICG says, has a greater hold on Gaza than the Palestinian Authority (PA) has on the West Bank and is "banking on steady erosion in Fatah and PA support". A Hamas leader observed that when PA negotiations with Israel fail, "everyone will unite and return to [ armed] resistance, including Fatah. 2009 will be a much better year for the resistance and a much worse year for the occupation."
The ICG does not believe there will be a fresh uprising because Palestinians are exhausted and eager for "a return to normalcy". However, growing unemployment, poverty and rising inflation could produce fresh violence. The ICG urges Israel and the international community to promote Palestinian unity.
