The man said to be Europe's longest-serving parliamentarian, Seamus Pattison, is retiring after 46 years as Labour TD for Carlow/Kilkenny. His departure is transforming the political landscape in this most traditional and dynastic of constituencies. The sprawling five-seater is a mix of urban and rural - from touristy Kilkenny city and the student town of Carlow to small villages and extensive farmlands.
Labour activists startled themselves and the wider public by failing to select "the nephew", Eoin Pattison, and have chosen instead to nominate councillors Michael O'Brien (Kilkenny) and Jim Townsend (Carlow) as their candidates. Both also stood in 2002, when Séamus Pattison was automatically returned as Ceann Comhairle, offering the party a tantalising opportunity to win a historic second seat. Townsend came close, but was edged out on the eighth count by Fianna Fáil, which won three of the four seats contested, the other one going to Fine Gael.
This time, Labour's "traditional seat" is considered to be at risk, with a spirited challenge for the "soft-left" vote coming from an increasingly confident Green Party deputy leader, Mary White. The Carlow councillor is contesting her third general election and hopes to become the first woman to represent the constituency in the Dáil. Aided by a national profile, Cllr White attracts support in both counties and she has assiduously cultivated issues such as water quality and the development of a biofuel industry.
In contrast to Labour, Fianna Fáil's Aylward family, which has a formidable reputation for harvesting votes across rural south Kilkenny, looks certain to retain its "heirloom" seat. Outgoing TD Liam is stepping aside to concentrate on Brussels, having become an MEP for the East constituency at the last European election. His brother, Bobby, a councillor and farmer, is steeped in the GAA wool through his association with the Ballyhale-Shamrocks hurling club, the county's equivalent of A-rated celebrities, and he is expected to head the poll.
Kilkenny city's John McGuinness attracts a fiercely loyal following and his reputation as an outspoken, maverick backbencher may shield him from the anticipated drop in Fianna Fáil support. The party's third seat, held by Carlow-based MJ Nolan (son of former minister Tom Nolan), is vulnerable. Nolan lost the seat to Fine Gael's John Browne in 1997 but scraped back in last time.
A resurgent Fine Gael is determined to win back a second seat. Phil Hogan, the party's director of organisation, who has been tipped to become the constituency's first Fine Gael cabinet minister, is getting a "much warmer response than last time" and looks certain to be re-elected. Hoping to join him are Carlow's Senator Fergal Browne (in a second attempt to regain his father's seat) and south Kilkenny's rising star, Senator John Paul Phelan. Elected to Seanad Éireann at the age of 22, the youngest member of the outgoing Oireachtas enjoys the imprimatur of Fine Gael grandee and former TD, Kieran Crotty, and is attracting the elusive youth vote.
Carlow's Walter Lacey, the constituency's only PD councillor, is ploughing a lonely furrow as the party failed to find a running-mate on the Kilkenny side. The PDs did once have a seat here, when Martin Gibbons was elected in 1987, but lost it in 1989.
News of a human rights fact-finding trip to Colombia by Sinn Féin's Kathleen Funchion raised some eyebrows at a Kilkenny Chamber of Commerce-sponsored Q&A session with candidates last week. The bank official hopes to increase the party's 3.4 per cent 2002 first-preference vote but admits that her main aim is to raise Sinn Féin's hitherto low profile in the constituency.
There are no Independent candidates.
The likely allocation of seats is: Bobby Aylward and John McGuinness for Fianna Fáil; Phil Hogan and John Paul Phelan for Fine Gael; with the fifth seat going to Mary White for the Greens. But Labour is taking heart from the polls and its canvassers remain optimistic. They claim that media hype about Mary White is not being reflected on the doorsteps.
If the momentum for a Fine Gael/Labour "alternative" continues, her refusal to rule out support for a Fianna Fáil-led government could become problematic during the final 10 days of campaigning and Labour may just confound the pundits. This will be a count worth waiting up for.
VERDICT
FF - 2; FG - 2; GP - 1
Gain for FG and Greens; Labour, FF loss
LOCAL ISSUES
Carlow/Kilkenny has not had a cabinet minister since Tom Nolan (Carlow) was minister for labour in 1980/81 and Jim Gibbons (Kilkenny) was dismissed from agriculture by Charles Haughey in 1979. Water supply and quality, inadequate sewerage, traffic congestion in towns and villages, lack of public transport, poor planning, anti-social behaviour, patchy availability of broadband and lingering anger over the closure of Carlow's sugar factory are among the doorstep issues - along with health, welfare and education. In Carlow especially, where one in six workers commutes to Dublin, the train service prompts complaints.
