TURNOUT:A high turnout in referendums has traditionally been good news for the Yes side, writes Harry McGee, Political Staff
THE IRISH TimesTNS mrbi poll published on Friday contained interesting data on why people vote (and sometimes do not vote) in European referendums.
In Nice I voters abstained when they struggled to understand the issues. According to the findings of last week's Irish Timespoll, this may not be the case tomorrow - even those who say they don't understand the issues are committed to voting.
In the past a belief prevailed that a higher turnout meant an automatic advantage for the Yes side.
Another nostrum was that the turnout for European referendums has been on a slow slide since 1973, with some exceptions.
The third (again this came from Nice I) was that the level of understanding was linked to turnout: ie the lower the understanding the lower the turnout.
Friday's poll showed 70 per cent saying they were very likely to vote in the referendum. That possibility is remote. But it's likely that the turnout will surpass the paltry 35 per cent for Nice I and the 49 per cent for Nice II.
Unlike previously, the heightened interest is not necessarily good news for the Yes side. At least some of the softer opinion has been trending towards the No side. The notion that higher turnout automatically flows as one-way traffic for the Yes side is no longer as clear-cut as it was.
The corollary of this is that lack of knowledge of the treaty's contents and import hasn't alienated the public as it did with Nice 1. The principal reason cited by those saying they would vote No (30 per cent) was: "I don't know what I'm voting for/don't understand it."
Even when there is increased knowledge it's no longer clear that it benefits the Yes camp.
In the run-up to Nice II polls showed a clear correlation between a firmer understanding of the issues and a Yes vote.
Ten per cent more were aware of the issues in last Friday's poll compared to the previous Irish Timespoll on May 28th. But this seems to have benefited the No side.
Prof Richard Sinnott produced an intriguing statistic at the recent launch of a book on Irish elections, The Irish Voter, which he co-edited. It showed that, taken as a proportion of the total electorate, the No vote fell from 21 per cent to 19 per cent between the Amsterdam Treaty in 1998 and Nice I in 2001. Yet it still won. The reason? The Yes vote collapsed almost 35 per cent to a miserly 16 per cent.
When the turnout for the individual constituencies was parsed, it showed that there were "no shows" of voters in many rural constituencies which normally turn out in the high 60s in general elections. According to Prof Sinnott, the normal pattern of higher turnout in rural and western areas was reversed in this instance.
The constituencies in which there was a respectable turnout were the urban ones. Dublin South and Dún Laoghaire were the only constituencies to return a majority Yes vote.
Nice II restored the balance towards the Yes side, with 63 per cent voting in favour of the amendment. Crucially, the turnout had jumped to 49 per cent, with the bulk of voters who made up the 14 per cent increase voting in favour. There were also much higher turnouts from rural and western constituencies. Prof Sinnott has identified several cohorts who he says have tended to vote in lower numbers in European referendums. They are: rural voters (who are less inclined to vote on Europe); young voters (who tend not to vote in great numbers) and female voters. "When women have less confidence in their knowledge of what is involved, we know it is a factor that affects their propensity to vote," he says.
As things stand, we may very well see a situation where a very low turnout favours the No side, a medium turnout favours the Yes side, and a very large turnout might just favour the No side.