With Sinn Fein on board, pact is easy to sell

The worries of two weeks ago, when politicians expressed unease that changes in Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution might generate…

The worries of two weeks ago, when politicians expressed unease that changes in Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution might generate a negative backlash in the South, have dissipated. With Sinn Fein on board, the Belfast Agreement will be an easy package to sell.

But the conviction of politicians has yet to infect the wider electorate. The latest opinion polls have indicated that one-third of voters, on both sides of the Border, are still undecided about their voting intentions. But that will change as the political parties swing into action.

There is not a single dissenting voice in the Dail against the implementation of the Belfast Agreement. The consensus is so embracing that public apathy could become a real problem if voters decide the result is a foregone conclusion. A low turnout would be disastrous in terms of representative democracy.

To guard against that and to ensure their supporters toe the party line, politicians are gearing up for action. Besides distributing posters, leaflets and arranging public meetings, they intend to enlist the support of the social partners, the churches and vocational bodies in pursuit of an overwhelmingly positive response.

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John Bruton will outline Fine Gael's strategy for the referendum at a press conference in Dublin this morning. But the party's decision to wrap the Belfast and Amsterdam campaigns into one would suggest both a cost-cutting exercise and an overweening confidence that both referendums will carry easily, in spite of current "undecided" figures.

Fianna Fail will set out its stall tomorrow when the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and a phalanx of Ministers will assure the electorate that this Agreement threatens nothing and promises much.

Some mild strictures from Mr Bruton and Proinsias De Rossa over his Easter Rising speech at Arbour Hill last weekend may cause the Taoiseach to ease up on the green rhetoric. The Fianna Fail faithful don't really need to be told the British government is "out of the equation" in Northern Ireland and that the agreement is a stepping stone to a united Ireland. Especially when such statements are grist to the mill of Dr Paisley and his No vote campaign in the North.

With so much invested in the process, Fianna Fail is leaving nothing to chance. Money, all of £200,000, will be spent by the party to secure a high, positive vote. TDs and senators have already been instructed by Mr Ahern to get out and canvass for a Yes vote in their constituencies. And a three-week, intensive campaign is planned to begin on May 4th, after the bank holiday weekend.

The party's campaign director, P.J. Mara, promises a "full-blooded campaign" and hopes for a turn-out in excess of 60 per cent. Changes in Articles 2 and 3 were the only negative elements that had to be confronted, he said, and he believed the language used by the Taoiseach had dealt with them. Mr Mara accepted there had been some initial misunderstanding of the situation within Fianna Fail, but he declared the organisation was now "absolutely on side".

Part of that recovery process involved Mr Ahern invoking the legacy of Sean Lemass in justification for the proposed new wording of Article 3. Borrowing, in the words of the Taoiseach, "some of the language formulated by Sean Lemass who took part in the 1916 Rising", the new article will state: "It is the firm will of the Irish nation, in harmony and friendship, to unite all the people who share the territory of the island of Ireland, in all the diversity of their identities and traditions, recognising that a united Ireland shall be brought about only by peaceful means with the consent of a majority of the people, democratically expressed, in both jurisdictions on the island."

Over in the Progressive Democrats, Mary Harney has committed her party to a co-operative approach. The Tanaiste favours joint press conferences and photo opportunities by the party leaders to impress the public with the unanimous approach by the democratic forces in the Dail.

Ruairi Quinn visits Belfast today to meet the SDLP and other groups in the aftermath of the agreement. And the Labour Party will open a separate campaign for a Yes vote next week. In that regard, expenditure is likely to be limited to posters and leaflets, with TDs and senators canvassing in their local areas.

Mr Quinn's suggestion that parties should forgo their right to political broadcasts in this referendum, to deny equal air time to opposing forces under the McKenna Supreme Court judgment, has been generally accepted.

A similar, low-budget approach has being adopted by Mr De Rossa and Democratic Left. The party will put up posters and distribute leaflets where it is organised.

The Green Party will also avail of supporters rather than money in pursuit of a Yes vote.

With Sinn Fein expected to endorse the agreement at its special ardfheis on May 10th, and change its abstentionist policy in relation to a Northern Assembly, the road lies open for a totally united Dail campaign.

There is not a flicker of dissent along the Fianna Fail or Fine Gael back benches.

The only vocal objections and complaints of "sell-out" are coming from Republican Sinn Fein and from a number of marginal republican groups. And they are not viewed as a serious threat by the Dail parties.

Short of a cataclysmic collapse in support, the Belfast Agreement will receive massive public endorsement in the Republic on May 22nd.