With the nationalist vote split Ken can be cocky

THE sun is shining on the lake waters and woodlands of Fermanagh

THE sun is shining on the lake waters and woodlands of Fermanagh. The cherry trees are in full blossom and at last there's a burst of election energy.

Polling day looms and the sharp suits and blazers have hit Enniskillen. The Sinn Fein cavalcade of Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness, Pat Doherty, Mitchel McLaughlin, Gerry Kelly - the suits mostly - are striding through the town centre, canvassing for Gerry McHugh, their candidate in Fermanagh-South Tyrone.

Ken Maginnis is stomping the streets at the same time but sadly for the reporters and snappers their paths don't cross. The Sinn Fein entourage avoids the Cenotaph, scene of the IRA bombing which killed 11 people in 1987.

"Give my regards to Ken," says Mr Adams with a smile.

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"Harumph," says Ken, in his navy blazer, ever the appearance of a retired UDR major, as indeed he is. He'll make no comment on the Sinn Fein presence in his home patch.

He's knocking on doors in the predominantly unionist Coleshill housing estate with Cecil, Ernie, Basil and Victor. "But where the hell's Basil?" Ken thunders.

"He's up canvassing the other street," says Cecil.

"Get him back here so the voters can see him with me," Ken instructs. Basil Johnston is a UUP candidate in the local elections, running three weeks after the Westminster poll. Ken is so assured of holding his Westminster seat that he's double-jobbing, striving to up the UUP vote in the local elections.

Now there's confidence. But why wouldn't he be cocky in the absence of an SDLP/Sinn Fein pact - and the DUP generously giving him a clear run.

It could have been different, though. There was talk of former GAA president Peter Quinn standing as a non-party unity candidate which would have left it a hard-to-call 50-50 battle between the two. But whatever about Sinn Fein, the SDLP wouldn't bite. "And good luck to them," said Mr Maginnis with feeling.

He has made a few digs at Mr Quinn, expressing his "astonishment" that a businessman coming from such a prominent "social stratum" would wish to unite the Sinn Fein and SDLP vote. Unlike, say, Willie McCrea, nationalists, despite their efforts, know they can't portray Mr Maginnis as a hate figure.

This is his 12th election campaign in 16 years. His health willing and the nationalist split continuing, he sees himself contesting one further Westminster election after this one.

"But if I was trudging through hail and snow I'd be doing this very reluctantly," he says.

The great constitutional issue is not to the fore on this canvass in Coleshill "People know where I stand, they don't have to ask". A man says Ken swore pure blind he'd provide a bus shelter for the kids going to school. Mr Maginnis doesn't remember and is of a mind to argue with him. But instead he makes a note into his Dictaphone, observing the first rule of politics: keep your supporters sweet.

A student based in Belfast complains he was refused a postal vote. "But I'll travel the 80 miles back to Enniskillen to vote for you," he assures the unionist candidate. The vote in this constituency is always upwards of 80 per cent. Unionists and nationalists understand the importance of the unstated constitutional agenda.

The one issue that does arise regularly throughout his canvasses is, naturally, Drumcree. "Some police officers, and their wives more particularly, are worried. They feel pulled two ways. They might have a brother in the Orange Order and they want to avoid being on the front line this time. They want a resolution, not confrontation."

He doesn't have any particular resolution himself to offer. "But I'm trying to keep things level and sensible. That's what I stand for," says Mr Maginnis.

Back in the town centre Gerry McHugh is drinking tea and eating sandwiches in a local restaurant with the Sinn Fein heavyweights. This is the most sprawling of the North's 18 constituencies. One day Mr McHugh is in Moy, Co Tyrone, the next he's almost 100 miles away in Garrison, west Fermanagh.

Mr McHugh looks rather frazzled, which is hardly surprising considering that his wife Geraldine is due to deliver a third child around polling day. But there's no sympathy from Gerry Adams, whose view is that labour must wait. "We thought it was rather bad timing on Gerry's part," says the Sinn Fein leader.

Gerry's main objective is to poll higher than the SDLP candidate Tommy Gallagher from Belleek, and while Sinn Fein fared better in the Forum election, boundary changes should allow the SDLP to regain the nationalist lead.

Sinn Fein constantly harp on the lack of a pact, blaming SDLP intransigence for Mr Maginnis's certain victory. "But whether here in Belleek or in Ballygawley or Enniskillen or Aughnacloy people understand the dilemma we faced," says Tommy.

No ceasefire, no pact, it's as simply as that, he adds. "The message I'm getting on the doorstep, particularly from mothers, is that if there is not a new IRA ceasefire, if Drumcree is not avoided this time, Fermanagh and the rest of the North could descend into some of the worst sectarian violence we have ever seen. That's what will be on voters' minds when they cast their vote next week," says Mr Gallagher.

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty is the former Northern editor of The Irish Times