A new report says worldwide sales of mobile phones are expected to hit 500 million this year.
The figure given by research firm Gartner Dataquest is higher than the forecasts given by leading handset manufacturers last month.
Faced with a slowing economy and high penetration rates, mobile phone-makers have significantly lowered sales predictions for 2001. And investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) today cut its forecast to 450 million units.
In a note to clients CSFB says the downturn in the broader economy will continue to hit demand this year. It predictssales will also be affected by a "hiatus" in replacement handset purchases among consumers before the launch of so-called 2.5G phones.
According to Gartner Dataquest mobile phone companies are becoming overly pessimistic on prospects for the industry.
Senior analyst Mr Bryan Prohm says: "The unbridled optimism of the past has been superseded by an atmosphere of increasingly reckless pessimism about the prospect for next-generation mobile telephony terminals and services."
But he adds that the high annual growth rates in global mobile terminal sales seen in the previous decade will be unsustainable over the long term.
Gartner Dataquest's forecast comes as Vodafone in the UK prepares to sell its new GPRS handsets at £99.99 sterling from tomorrow. The first GPRS mobile phone on sale will be the Motorola Timeport T260, with other GPRS phones and PDAs to be made available over the next few months.
PA