The latest effort to revive Afghanistan peace talks hit an obstacle yesterday when the Afghan government said it would no longer meet the Taliban and suspended separate talks with the US about future military co-operation.
Apparently co-ordinated announcements on Tuesday by the Afghan government, the US and Taliban had seemed to pave the way for the first talks between the antagonists in the Afghan war, raising the prospect of reconciliation before the Nato mission ends next year.
However, the complexity of launching those talks was underlined within a day when Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president, said his representatives would not attend the talks, which are to be held in Qatar.
In a statement released by his office, Mr Karzai objected to the high-profile way the Taliban had been allowed to open an office in Qatar on Tuesday, which he said “was in absolute contrast with all the guarantees that the United States of America had pledged”.
He added: “Recent developments showed that there are foreign hands behind the opening of the Taliban office in Qatar. Unless the peace process is led by Afghans, the High Peace Council will not participate in the Qatar negotiations.”
Banner unfurled
The High Peace Council is a body established by Mr Karzai to lead peace talks.
As the Taliban opened its office, representatives raised a banner for the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, the name it used for the country it controlled until 2001 – a suggestion the movement sees itself as the legitimate government.
The US has been working for several years to engineer peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban after US military commanders concluded they would not be able to win a decisive military victory against the insurgents
According to US officials, talks were to begin today with discussions between Taliban and the US in Qatar, with more important talks between the Taliban and the High Peace Council starting “days later”.
The push by Washington to begin the reconciliation process has been given fresh urgency by the fact most US troops are due to leave the country next year.
Although Mr Karzai said his representatives would not attend talks in Qatar, he raised the prospect talks could take place in Kabul.
'Areas of friction'
Speaking at a press conference in Berlin, US president Barack Obama said: "There were going to be some areas of friction, to put it mildly, in getting this thing off the ground." However, he added: "Ultimately we're going to need to see Afghans talking to Afghans about how they can move forward and end the cycle of violence."
While Mr Karzai is often accused by Washington of quixotic behaviour, his latest move reflects very real uncertainties about Taliban motives for entering talks.
Given the rapid build-up in Afghan security forces, the Taliban may also have concluded it cannot win a victory on the battlefield.
Analysts say more moderate sections of the Taliban fear a descent into a civil war once international forces leave the country.
However, the talks also give the Taliban a platform to increase legitimacy.
“What it changes is the public face of the Taliban,” says Martine van Bijlert, a director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network, a Kabul-based think-tank. “They are no longer a clandestine movement that people have to go through all kinds of channels to find them in a backwater. There is now a swish office.”
The Taliban’s office ceremony, which included the presence of Qatar’s deputy foreign minister, appeared designed to put the Taliban on the same level as the government or as a parallel government. “Karzai feels tricked by the US and is not really pleased with how this played out,” says Ms Van Bijlert.
While the Obama administration presents the process as Afghans talking to Afghans, the Taliban itself prefers talks with the US.
“The Taliban want to talk to the Americans because they see Karzai as a stooge,” says Graeme Smith, a senior analyst in Afghanistan for the International Crisis Group. “It’s a tug-of-war over who is going to control these talks.”
Fear of abandonment
Mr Karzai also suspended talks with the US about a long-term military presence in the country after Nato operations end next year.
John Allen, the former commander of international forces in Afghanistan, said last month that, because of the country's "historical fear of abandonment", the US needs to clarify soon what sort of force it will leave "to help Afghans feel more confident about the future". – (Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2013)