Long before Angela Merkel became chancellor in 2005, she already had her eye on the exit. Before German voters showed Helmut Kohl the door in 1998, she said that her mentor, who had been in power since 1982, risked overstaying his welcome.
“I would like to find the right point for getting out of politics,” said Merkel in an unusually frank interview with German photographer Herlinde Koelbl in 1997. “It is much more difficult than I imagined it earlier. But I don’t want to be a half-dead wreck.”
After three punishing, crisis-packed terms as chancellor, Merkel likes to brush off questions of her future plans with the promise of a decision “at the appropriate time”.
That time is now here. In four weeks’ time, CDU leaders and delegates hold their annual conference and, in an indication of just how much the CDU depends on its leader of 16 years, just one item dominates the agenda: will she or won’t she?
Merkel’s close allies say they don’t know for sure, but suggest that she will arrive at an answer using her usual method of breaking a big question into three smaller ones: am I physically up for it? Do I still have something to give? Does the job still stimulate me?
Refugee crisis
Seeing Merkel up close these days, it is impossible to ignore how exhausted she looks. Yet, whether tackling the refugee crisis or Russian president Vladimir Putin, she still seems as engaged as ever.
Then there are the numbers. After a near-absolute majority in 2013, her CDU/CSU alliance is now below 30 per cent now. Refugee frustrations and challenges linger, catalysing the rise of right-wing populist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).
Its steady, double-digit support – and the slow revival of the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) – means the next Bundestag will be a crowded place with, according to current polls, just one majority option: a third CDU-led grand coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD).
The idea of that causes despair among most German journalists, tired of Merkel and looking for something new. CDU officials, meanwhile, point to the booming economy and record jobless rate and say the party would be mad to disrupt a winning leader. In many CDU hearts, however, a fear is growing that their party is now effectively Merkel’s political hostage.
Internal rivals
So if Merkel ran again, what of the theory that, if re-elected, she would hand over to a successor a year into her fourth term? Those close to her dismiss the idea. She would feel duty-bound, if re-elected, to see her term through until 2021.
Merkel may have little choice other than to do so. Her talent for routing internal CDU rivals secured her political longevity, but eliminated much talent from the party and left those behind “declawed”.
With no high-profile challenger keeping her on her toes, the closest thing Merkel has to a John Major-in-waiting is Thomas De Maizière, her competent interior minister who arouses as much passion among Germans as Margaret Thatcher’s successor once did.
So, assuming Merkel does run again – because she wants to or because she’s left it too late not to – what will her sales pitch next year to voters be?
Lutz Meyer, mastermind of the 2013 CDU campaign that was “all about Angela”, admits he faces a major dilemma for 2017. Meyer says that in next year’s CDU campaign it would be best to push content over personality, yet even he struggles to avoid the indispensable Merkel.
“Merkel will have to be at the CDU campaign’s heart,” he said. “There really is no alternative to her.”
