Dutch Covid death toll last year may be twice the official figure

Shocking new figures from the Dutch national statistics agency show that the number of deaths from coronavirus last year alone in the Netherlands may have topped 20,000 – nearly twice the official figure of 11,500.

In a surprising intervention on Thursday, the agency said its recently completed analysis of the monthly figures for December last brought the total for last year to 20,030, of whom 17,375 were confirmed coronavirus deaths and the rest suspected.

The statistics also showed for the first time that six out of 10 of those who died were living at the time in some form of residential care and had not been hospitalised.

That distinction between deaths in care homes and deaths in hospitals was a source of confusion in the first months of the pandemic because, while hospitals were in a position to test new patients for Covid-19, GPs visiting nursing homes were not and so cases went undiagnosed even in death.

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As a result, the official figures for coronavirus deaths came predominantly from hospitals, with the expectation that once hospital deaths and nursing home deaths were properly collated, the “real” figure would be about 40 per cent higher.

On that basis, the broad figures used in recent months by caretaker prime minister Mark Rutte and acting health minister Hugo de June have been in the region of 15,000-16,000 – with the figure quoted on the Dutch government's own coronavirus dashboard on Thursday standing at 16,691.

Sobering reading

In light of the new statistics agency figures, however, it’s clear that even that figure of 16,691 remains a significant underestimate, if the total for 2020 was already 20,030.

While the new statistics make sobering reading, especially with two-thirds of intensive care beds currently occupied by coronavirus patients, the trend in new cases is again marginally downwards – and so the caretaker government is considering reopening restaurant terraces from April 21st.

A number of city mayors – including Amsterdam's Femke Halsema – have made the argument that reopening outdoor terraces where gatherings can be professionally managed may be a better option than keeping them closed as summer draws large, unfocused crowds outdoors.

There have also been suggestions that the controversial overnight curfew introduced in January could be scrapped from that date and that the number of people allowed to visit a private home in 24 hours could be increased from one to two.

In a separate development on Thursday evening, a 37-year-old man was arrested and charged with domestic terrorism for planning an attack on a vaccine centre in the town of Den Helder, using what police described as "a firework bomb". There have been a number of similar attacks.

The public prosecutor’s office said the aim was to “sabotage” the vaccination programme.