Europe kicks off a conversation about its future

In future could figures like European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen be elected directly by citizens instead of nominated by member state governments and approved by the European Parliament? Is the lesson of the Covid-19 pandemic that there should be greater integration of health policy across the European Union? Or should the EU do less?

These are the kinds of questions posed to citizens as the EU launches a mass consultation on its future this week. Citizens are invited to make submissions on the https://futureu.europa.eu/ online portal, which will then feed into citizens panels in the Conference on the Future of Europe that kicks off in Strasbourg on May 9th. The aim is to produce conclusions in 2022, with the possibility of treaty changes to reform the EU structure.

The pandemic posed a dilemma for the bloc because its close cross-border integration meant infection roamed the continent, but health measures to tackle infection were purely the power of national governments.

"If things had been ideal we would have always had a European approach when it comes to lockdowns, confinements and restrictive measures," German chancellor Angela Merkel reflected this week. "When there are cross-border threats you do need to have a health policy that is co-ordinated."

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But the 27 member states never succeeded on co-ordinating their pandemic policy. Even on travel, the furthest they got was agreeing to base their testing and quarantine rules on a colour-coded map – and the logic of Ireland’s quarantine system appears to have departed from that.

Where the EU did move into a new area of joint action, on vaccines, the results were mixed. The United States, United Kingdom and Israel have been quicker in getting their citizens vaccinated. Across the EU communications went so badly wrong that the mass rollout of safe and effective vaccines for a novel disease less than a year into a pandemic – a miraculous event – was received as a series of mishaps.

This is reflected in a survey published this week by the European Movement Ireland, in which 48 per cent of respondents said they did not have confidence in the EU's vaccines strategy, compared to 45 per cent who did. Asked whether member states should give the EU more powers over healthcare to tackle crises like coronavirus, 49 per cent disagreed while 35 per cent agreed.

The pandemic has not dented Irish views on EU membership overall, according to the survey, which showed 84 per cent support for membership, an identical figure to last year. It was higher in 2018 and 2019, when support was in the 90s, but polls continue to show Ireland is one of the bloc's most enthusiastic members.

Global warming

The support is consistent across region and gender, but there is an interesting pattern among age groups. In various questions, the youngest 18- to 24-year-old group and the oldest, 65+ group, are the most positive towards EU issues while the 45-54 age group are the least. It would be interesting to know whether there is a link to the experience of having a young family during the bitter bailout years.

And what about the bloc’s future path?

A majority of respondents said the EU was not doing enough to tackle climate change, and should do more to regulate digital media platforms. The poll indicated a clear majority in favour of increased EU defence and security co-operation, with 54 per cent in favour compared to 27 per cent against. That result was almost exactly flipped for the question on whether there should be more political and economic integration in the EU if it meant member states lost control over economic policy, such as tax.

In the past, attempts at EU treaty change have run aground in national referendums. But the bloc is likely to face years of change ahead. Merkel is preparing to leave office after 16 years as chancellor, the end of an era for the EU. And the bloc is divided on some of its greatest challenges, particularly the retreat of democracy in the east.

The chancellor’s approach to the issue has long been one of accommodation rather than confrontation, and when asked about the future this week her message was one of gradualism. When it comes to questions such as granting more powers to the EU, views were bound to differ and progress would take time.

“We have to move forward moderately. Otherwise Europe will be divided,” Merkel said. “There are societies in which there is a great deal of polarisation because everything is decided based on a majority. If you want to bring everyone along with you, the quickest route isn’t always the best one.”