At first glance, the numbers seem pitiable. The European Commission’s proposal that EU member states resettle 20,000 refugees will do little to tackle the humanitarian crisis that is prompting hundreds of thousands of migrants to flee to European shores each year.
But the proposal by the European Commission to forge a coherent EU-wide policy on migration is a welcome start. Migration and home affairs are notoriously complex areas of EU policy and a truly Europe-wide asylum policy has always proven elusive.
While most member states are likely to accept the resettlement plan contained in yesterday's European agenda on migration, which involves resettling up to 20,000 refugees residing outside of Europe, the plan for a relocation scheme to redistribute migrants who have already entered EU territory will prove more controversial.
Equitable distribution
Calls for a more equitable distribution of migrants throughout the
European Union
have been circulating for years, driven mainly by southern EU countries like
Italy
,
Greece
and
Malta
, who have rightly argued that they take most responsibility for refugees arriving to the European Union.
Significantly, Germany has entered the debate more recently. Having initially opposed the idea of a mandatory resettlement programme given that it already accepts one of the highest proportions of migrants in the EU, Berlin has more recently endorsed the plan, and is particularly keen on the idea of setting a precedent on the principle of burden-sharing.
While the European Commission has put a target on the numbers to be resettled, a specific figure for the relocation scheme will be announced by the end of the month. This is likely to be highly contentious. Already, for example, there are calls for countries like Italy and Greece to be exempt from the scheme because they already take a high number of migrants.
Treatment of migrants whose family members have already been granted asylum in the European Union will also be a consideration.
Most fundamentally, however, the idea of a quota system to relocate migrants across the European Union risks changing the principles of the “Dublin convention”, the EU law which states that asylum seekers who arrive in the European Union must apply for asylum in the countries where they first arrive. Under the new proposal, the commission envisages that the country which receives the relocated migrants under the proposed relocation scheme makes the final decision on the asylum process.
Given the significant changes that the European Commission’s proposal on migration may make to EU policy on migration, the relocation proposal is likely to be closely scrutinised by EU member states in the European Council over the coming weeks.
While the commission’s relocation proposal is temporary and is designed to respond to an “emergency” situation, it hopes it will form the basis for a more permanent redistribution system to deal with future emergency migration influxes.
One obvious question is what level of influx will be considered an “emergency” situation in future and which EU institution will decide this.
Decisive role
A feature of this week’s debate about EU migration policy has been the decisive role taken by the European Commission. Privately, some member states were taken by surprise by the scale of changes to the asylum system that the EU’s executive arm is proposing, though the commission is likely to have been emboldened by the tacit support of large countries such as Germany, Italy and
France
on the issue.
Announcing the proposal in Brussels yesterday, European Commission first vice-president Frans Timmermans defended the commission's right – and responsibility – to address the migration crisis. The European Commission was not elected to "do the gardening", he said. "We are here to address the thorny issues."
Meanwhile, focus over the next few weeks will turn to Britain and Ireland’s position. Both have opt-outs on most EU justice and home affairs issues, though in practice they opt in to many of them. Britain has said it will oppose any mandatory system proposed by the EU.
While Ireland is expected to opt in to the resettlement proposal, it has yet to decide on its participation in the relocation proposal. Technically the Government has until the end of August to opt in to the legislative proposal, but it will likely come under pressure to make a decision sooner rather than later. As Timmermans said: "The treaty is the treaty. It is up to those countries to decide whether to be part of the system of solidarity or not . . . What they want to do politically is up to them and I hope we would see a great show of solidarity across the European Union."