Five Star’s ascent threatens Italy’s Matteo Renzi

Showing the skills that have made him a leading campaigner for Italy's anti-establishment Five Star Movement, Alessandro Di Battista channelled all the anger and outrage he could muster to rally the few hundred people gathered on a frigid piazza in Reggio Emilia, northern Italy.

“It’s David against Goliath,” said the 38-year-old Roman in jeans, laying into prime minister Matteo Renzi’s constitutional reforms – the fate of which will be decided in a referendum on Sunday that could upend Italian politics. “We are defending democracy in Italy – this is a battle for sovereignty.”

Street politics comes naturally to Di Battista, who toured Italy by motorbike this summer to argue against Renzi's plans and try to drive him from office. He was picked for the task by Beppe Grillo, the brash comedian who established the Five Star Movement seven years ago.

Now Grillo could be days away from claiming Renzi’s scalp – and, Five Star supporters hope, cementing the upstart movement’s central position in Italy’s fraught political landscape and extending populist gains in western democracies.

According to the latest polls, Italians are poised to turn down Renzi’s reforms, meaning the prime minister would be likely to step down. Such an outcome would be a big win for all the opposition parties who have mobilised against Renzi and his constitutional reform – but it may be sweetest for Grillo.

His party, which has called for a referendum on exiting the euro zone and has forged ties with Nigel Farage's UK Independence Party, is already running neck-and-neck with the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) in the polls. After a No victory the Five Star Movement could potentially establish itself as Italy's leading party, giving Grillo momentum for parliamentary elections that are due by early 2018.

“It would not be entirely their victory but they would take advantage of it and any ensuing political chaos,” says Ilvo Diamanti, a political-science professor at the University of Urbino. “They usually grow in times of uncertainty.”

The referendum campaign has not been without troubles for the Five Star Movement. Initially, it was distracted by the difficulties experienced by Virginia Raggi, the new Five Star mayor in Rome elected in June.

Lately, the Five Star Movement has been engulfed in a scandal in Sicily involving the collection of false signatures related to the 2012 municipal election campaign. It also came under fire – following a BuzzFeed investigation and reporting in La Stampa – for facilitating the dissemination of fake news and conspiracy theories, and nurturing close ties to the Kremlin.

Contradiction

Renzi and his allies hope that, in the final stages of the campaign, a fundamental contradiction in the Five Star Movement’s message will also emerge: that its opposition to the constitutional reforms, which would strip powers from the Senate and regional governments to ease political and administrative gridlock, means it is actually championing an unsatisfactory status quo.

In a short interview Di Battista denied that this would resonate with voters. “These reforms serve to give more power to those who are already in power with the poor results we see every day,” he said.

During the rally Mr Di Battista accused Renzi’s PD of being like a “bank selling toxic assets” to the people and mocked one lawmaker for drinking tea made with Ferrarelle “mineral water”.

As the Five Star Movement's support has risen, so has the seriousness of rival parties' efforts to stymie its progress. Regardless of the referendum outcome, the PD and Forza Italia, the centre-right party led by former prime minister and media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi, are expected to negotiate a change in the electoral law aimed at reducing the chances that Grillo's party could take power.

"If they go to new elections and the Five Star comes first with a mainly proportional system, they would have the problem of finding alliances," says Marco Tarchi, a professor of political science at the University of Florence. "So it's not all roses for them."

Di Battista has sought to play down the significance of the referendum for his party’s future. “We are not voting on the Five Star Movement,” he said. “We are voting on whether to maintain certain rights for our citizens – that’s what interests us.”

In Reggio Emilia, traditionally a leftwing stronghold, Five Star supporters are bubbling with enthusiasm at what could be a springboard for success. “Let’s stop this reform, which is the battle now,” says Natascia Cersosimo (42), a nurse and Five Star local councillor, holding an Italian flag. “And then we can really hope to govern. The real change will come from the Five Star Movement, no one else,” she says.

In the crowd, Zeno Parmeggiani ( 63), a retired print company worker, also believes Five Star is on an inexorable ascent. “This movement has grown and is becoming stronger and stronger,” he says. “We feel we are important now. At the next elections we will have a majority.”

Renzi’s referendum explained

Matteo Renzi has staked his tenure as Italian prime minister on a reform of the constitution, which will be put to a nationwide referendum on Sunday.

At the heart of the proposals is a big change in the role of the Senate, the upper chamber of parliament. At the moment the Senate of 315 elected members plays an equal role in crafting legislation with the lower chamber – like the US Congress. Under Renzi’s plan, the Senate would be reduced to 100 unelected members of regional assemblies and mayors.

On most legislative matters – except for constitutional change, the election of president and certain EU laws – they would have a consultative role, but it would no longer be binding. The aim is to reduce legislative gridlock and make governing easier. But opponents say it gives too much power to the executive and removes an important check on the government.

The second main element of the reform is revision of Title V of the constitution, which sets out the relationship between Italy’s 20 regions and the central government.

Over time, an increasing number of responsibilities have been shifted away from Rome to regional governments, which critics say has brought overspending, more bureaucracy and legal disputes. Renzi is seeking to take some of that power back, in part so that infrastructure projects can be overseen from the capital.

Business groups are happy with the proposed change. But critics say recentralisation is the last thing Italy needs, especially given its wide geographic disparities.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2016