Russian president Vladimir Putin declared yesterday that his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad, is prepared to conduct early parliamentary elections and share power with elements of the opposition.
The announcement came as reports emerged that Islamic State forces continued their rampage against the world's cultural heritage by destroying first- and second-century tower tombs in the ancient ruins of Palmyra, Syria.
Mr Putin stated: “The Syrian president agrees to holding parliamentary elections and establishing contacts with the so-called healthy opposition and engaging them in governing.” Moscow, he said, is “ready to facilitate dialogue between Syrians,”
Putin blamed the flood of Syrian refugees into Europe on IS rather than the Assad government. IS “is committing atrocities . . . so that’s why [Syrians] are fleeing.”
Elections in May
Assad may not be making a major concession, since the next parliamentary election is due in May 2016. He has previously said he is prepared for a unity government including the internationally accepted opposition, but excluding armed factions.
The 2012 parliamentary election was boycotted by the opposition and denounced by Damascus's foes. Still, Russia has tried to promote dialogue between the government and opposition for many months.
Moscow has also pressed for formation of a broad international coalition, including the US and its allies, Russia and Iran, to fight IS and other jihadi groups involved in the Syrian and Iraqi conflicts.
This has been rejected by the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, which are demanding Assad’s ouster as a precondition for negotiations on a ceasefire. The three regional powers are backing IS and other fundamentalist factions fighting in Syria and Iraq.
Arab and western politicians and pundits have predicted that Russia and Iran could reduce support for Damascus. But both Moscow and Tehran have demanded that Assad should be part of the “transition” from the current system of governance to a model empowering Syria’s many sects and ethnic communities.
Russians in Syria
The US has attempted to confirm recent allegations that Russian troops are taking part in anti-IS operations in Syria, but Putin said such reports are “premature”. He indicated that Russian troops and warplanes are not yet engaged, but hinted there could be future deployments.
Russia has maintained a naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean and delivered military hardware to Syria’s beleaguered army and militia allies.
Since Russia’s political initiatives have been rebuffed by the US and its partners, Moscow may, eventually, deploy “advisers” – as the US has in Iraq – and air power against IS, al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and other jihadi forces in Syria.
Russia cannot permit the overstretched, undermanned Syrian army and militia allies to lose the strategic territory the government holds in Damascus, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, Deraa and Latakia and Tartous on the coast. Moscow fears fresh losses could lead to the collapse of the state and the fracturing of Syria into jihadi fiefdoms attached to the IS "caliphate".
This would likely attract increasing numbers of foreign fighters. Those from the restive Caucasus already pose a danger to Russia.
The fall of the ancient ruins of Palmyra has highlighted the risks of the collapse of the Syrian army. Islamic State has executed scores of people from the adjacent city of Tadmor and nearby villages, destroyed Palmyra’s 2,000-year-old Bel and Baal Shamin temples, murdered veteran archaeologist Khaled al-Asaad, and destroyed three tower tombs located on the outskirts of the ruins of the ancient Silk Road.
Last month, Assad admitted that his army is struggling to maintain control of territory it holds due to a lack of manpower. The shortage of soldiers is due in part to the accelerating exodus of young men, particularly those who are completing their studies and seek to escape military conscription, or are forced to fight with insurgents.
