People in Damascus stocked up on supplies today and some left homes close to potential targets as US officials sketched out plans for multi-national air strikes on Syria that could last for days.
United Nations chemical weapons experts completed a second field trip to rebel-held suburbs, looking for evidence of what - and who - caused an apparent poison gas attack that residents say killed hundreds of people a week ago.
But as UN chief Ban Ki-moon appealed for unity among world powers and sought more time for the inspectors to complete their work, Washington and its European and Middle East allies said their minds were made up and that president Bashar al-Assad must face retribution for using banned weapons against his people.
Syria's government, supported notably by its main arms supplier Russia, cried foul. It blamed rebel "terrorists" for releasing the toxins with the help of the United States, Britain and France, and warned it would be a "graveyard of invaders".
Syrian officials say the West is playing into the hands of its al-Qaeda enemies. The presence of Islamist militants among the rebels has deterred Western powers from arming Assad’s foes. But the West says it must now act to stop the use of poison gas.
Britain pushed the other four veto-holding members of the UN Security Council at a meeting in New York to authorise military action against Assad to protect Syrian civilians - a move certain to be blocked by Russia and, probably, China.
The United States and its allies say a UN veto will not stop them. Western diplomats called the proposed resolution a manoeuvre to isolate Moscow and rally a coalition behind air strikes. Arab states, Nato and Turkey also condemned Assad.
Washington has repeatedly said that president Barack Obama has not yet made up his mind on what action he will order. A senior US official said strikes could last several days and would involve other armed forces: "We're talking to a number of different allies regarding participation in a possible kinetic strike," the official said today.
Western armies are expected to wait until the UN experts withdraw. Their initial 14-day mandate expires in four days, and Mr Ban said they need four days to complete the work.
A second US official said objectives were still being defined but that the targets could be chosen to prevent Assad from using chemical weapons in future. Washington was confident it could handle Syrian defences and any possible reprisals by its allies, including Iran and Lebanese militia Hezbollah.
With only the timing of an attack apparently in doubt, oil prices soared to a six-month high, lifting US energy shares and the overall US market.
But some emerging markets closed lower again today because of investor jitters over where the international escalation of Syria’s civil war might lead - however much Mr Obama and his allies may hope to limit it to a short punitive mission. Neighbouring Turkey, a Nato member, put its forces on alert. Israel mobilised some army reservists and bolstered its defences against missile strikes from either Syria or Lebanon.
Syria’s envoy to the United Nations said he had asked Mr Ban to have the team investigate three new attacks by rebel groups. People in Damascus, wearied by a civil war that has left the capital ringed by rebel-held suburbs, braced for air strikes. In a city where dozens of military sites are mixed in among civilian neighbourhoods, some were leaving home in the hope of finding somewhere safer, though many doubted it was worth it. “Every street, every neighbourhood has some government target,” said a nurse in the city centre. “Where do we hide?” At grocery stores, shoppers loaded up on bread, dry goods and cans. Bottled water and batteries were also in demand.
Numerous factors, including weather and assessments of Syrian air defences, may affect the timing of strikes. Analysts expect cruise missiles to be launched from US ships in the Mediterranean. Aircraft could also play a role, as may forces from other Nato powers, notably Britain and France. Mr Obama is waiting for a US intelligence report, though its findings are in little doubt.
US officials have already blamed Assad for the attacks on August 21st. US sources suggested that the intelligence cache included intercepted communications between Syrian officials but that these contained no “smoking gun” and were not likely to be declassified for public release.
British prime minister David Cameron has recalled parliament to debate the
Syria crisis tomorrow. He should be able to secure cautious support, despite widespread misgivings among Western voters about new entanglements in the Muslim world. But British action is unlikely before politicians have had their say.
Though decisive action against Syria is strongly backed by many in the US Congress, a growing number of politicians are pressing the president to consult them and receive congressional authorisation before ordering use of force.
The prospect of a Group of 20 summit in St Petersburg next Thursday may also weigh in calculations over timing any strikes. Russian host president Vladimir Putin has made clear his view that Western leaders are using human rights as a pretext to impose their will on other sovereign states.
“The West behaves like a monkey with a grenade in the Islamic world,” Russian deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin tweeted today. Western leaders in the G20 may prefer to have any strikes on Syria completed before the summit starts.
As diplomats from Russia, China, Britain, France and the United States met at the United Nations, Moscow said Britain was “premature” in seeking a Security Council resolution for “necessary measures” to protect Syrian civilians. But US state department spokeswoman Marie Harf told reporters: “The Syrians cannot continue to hide behind Russian intransigence at the Security Council.”
British foreign secretary William Hague said Russia and China might veto the move but added: “It’s time the UN Security Council shouldered its responsibilities on Syria which for the last two and a half years it has failed to do.”
A senior Western diplomat said: “Of course there will be a Russian veto, but that’s part of the objective - to show that we tried everything and the Russians left us no choice. “The Americans want to go quickly.”