Hillary Clinton is almost certain to be the Democratic Party candidate in next year’s US presidential election, but it is still too early to say who the Republican Party candidate will be despite a strong early show by Donald Trump, according to a former adviser to President Barrack Obama.
Harvard law professor Cass Sunstein said he was surprised at Mr Trump’s progress in opinion polls, but would still not rule out Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio or Governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker as winning through to become the Republican standard bearer.
“I think no one expected Trump to be as effective as he has been . . . I don’t really think at this stage there is a Republican front runner – most specialists think Trump is unlikely to be the Republican nominee even though he has captured enthusiasm from many people.
“They believe, and I agree with them, that it’s likely to be Jeb Bush or Governor Walker or Marco Rubio – one of the more established politicians,” said Mr Sunstein who was appointed by Mr Obama to head up the White Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in 2009.
One of the key factors in US presidential elections is the ability of a candidate to attract funding and Prof Sunstein proffered the example of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie who has struggled to attract financial support despite being touted a year ago as a serious contender.
Although Mr Trump has huge personal wealth, he hasn’t done so well when it comes to raising finance from supporters compared to Jeb Bush. And prediction markets, where people speculate on who is likely to win the nomination, are tending towards Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.
However, with 17 people seeking the Republican nomination, the outcome is is far from predictable, though Mr Sunstein would still be very surprised if Mr Trump was among the final two or three candidates as the selection process nears a conclusion, he said.
Prof Sunstein acknowledged that Mr Trump had in some ways set the agenda for his fellow Republican contenders, particularly on immigration, but that was a risky strategy for any Republican nominee given their need to win the Hispanic vote – particularly several key states.
“It’s a dilemma for the Republican candidates who are thinking what is in their political self-interest because it’s clear that there is a lot of concern among some Republican voters and I’m sure some Democrats too that there are illegal immigrants in America,” he said
“So the concern about illegal immigration is real and it’s probably been heightened by Mr Trump drawing attention to it and immigration does cause difficulty with Hispanic voters and if Democrats have the ability to attract to the vast majority of Hispanic voters then it gives them an advantage.”
Chaplin Festival
Prof Sunstein, who was speaking on the changing role of government in the 21 st century at the Charlie Chaplin Festival in Waterville in Co Kerry, said it was also possible that Mr Trump would run as an independent and that could also damage Republican chances of winning the White House.
On the Democratic side, Hilary Clinton was the clear forerunner and he could not see her being caught as she had several advantages over rivals such as Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont and vice president Joe Biden, if he decides to run, particularly with regard to funding and resources.
Prof Sunstein, who is married to Irish-born US ambassador to the UN Samantha Power, said Mrs Clinton also brings huge experience, having served as a Senator and secretary of state and knowing how the White House works from her time as first lady with her husband, president Bill Clinton.
“She has devoted her life to public service and I think people appreciate that and, compared to Bernie Sanders, she also has a connection in her policy views with the centre of the American people, whereas Bernie Sanders is quite to the left of the American people.”
Prof Sunstein said that Mrs Clinton also attracts a lot of support from women as offering the first realistic chance of having a female president while many men admire her for her ability to survive “a lot of blows”.
“She has the experience and the background to be an extraordinary president so I think she’s in a very solid position to win the Democratic nomination and no one should doubt that she would be a formidable candidate in the presidential election whoever her Republican opponent may be.”
