PRESIDENT Yeltsin's announcement of preconditions for a negotiated peace in Chechnya have put the difficulties over decommissioning of arms in Northern Ireland into a stark international perspective. The Chechen president, Mr Dzhokhar Dudayev, and the leaders of the two hostage taking expeditions, Mr Shamil Basayev and Mr Salman Raduyev, would have to be handed over to the authorities. "They would then be shot", he added, in what appeared to be almost an afterthought.
This bloodcurdling statement was made shortly before the Russian leader rose to address the faithful in the Palace of Youth in his home town of Yekaterinburg and declare his candidacy for a second term in the Kremlin.
The two statements may not be entirely unconnected. Russians in the past liked to have a Krutoi Muzhik (a tough hombre) at the helm and when the nation sat by TV sets last night that was the message it got. The images of the president declaring his candidacy and calling for the blood of the enemy were bolstered by shots of Russian army sappers detonating explosives to raze the presidential palace in Grozny the main symbol of Chechen resistance on the ground.
Between now and June 17th, when the people will choose a president of Russia for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, we can expect more of the same. Observers in Moscow say that Mr Yeltsin realises he has irretrievably lost the support of liberals and democrats and is now casting his net in murkier waters. A tough line with the Chechens, even if it means a continuation of the war, is more likely to gain than to lose votes in this constituency.
While there may be more votes in the anti democratic areas of the Russian mind, there is also far greater competition. Leading the field, and playing his cards calmly is Mr Gennady Zyuganov, the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF).
At 51, he is 14 years younger than Mr Yeltsin, and has studiously avoided the tomfoolery and bombast of that other major contender, Mr Vladimir Zhirinovsky, of the incongruously titled Liberal Democratic party. A former schoolteacher and ideology secretary in the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Mr Zyuganov's personality may be almost totally devoid of charisma but he does at least come over as a serious person.
Psephologists in Russia are convinced, however, that the KPRF is incapable of gaining more than 30 per cent of the vote in June. Such a vote would undoubtedly give Mr Zyuganov enough support to puts him through to the second round of balloting in which the two leading candidates will fight it out. But it would not be sufficient to win that second round.
Not surprisingly, therefore, Mr Zyuganov, who announced his candidacy in Moscow yesterday, made a strong play for non communist votes. His presidency would, he said, ensure that Russia had a coalition government which would save the state from destruction.
Already some support from outside the KPRF has been forthcoming in the form of Mr Viktor Anpilov, leader of a communist faction which is more Stalinist in its views than is the KPRF. What Mr Zyuganov will welcome, however, is the assistance of nationalist politicians; and a wooing process is under way with Gen Alexander Lebed, ex commander of the Russian forces in Moldova who believes Russia is in need of a leader of the calibre of the former Chilean dictator, Augusto Pinochet.
Should this "red brown" coalition come about, Mr Yeltsin's chances of a return to the Kremlin seem negligible. Aid may, however, come from an unlikely source. Mr Zhirinovsky is likely to draw enough "brown votes" in the first round to upset Mr Zyuganov's plans. He would then, assuming he does not make it into the second, be faced with advising his supporters to vote either for Mr Yeltsin or Mr Zyuganov in the run off.
Mr Zhirinovsky's voting record in the State Duma is one of almost total support for the policies of Mr Yeltsin, particularly in the case of the Chechen war. The president's bloodcurdling remarks about executing the Chechen leadership are more likely to have been aimed at pro Zhirinovsky voters than at striking fear into the Chechens.
The former Soviet leader, Mr Mikhail Gorbachev, who is hinting he may stand himself, says his former protege faces defeat: "Yeltsin has come to an end as well as his policy."
