ANALYSIS:There has been a significant swing in favour of the Lisbon Treaty since January but the first Nice Treaty referendum defeat shows turnout is vital, writes Stephen Collins, Political Editor.
THE PROSPECT of the Lisbon Treaty being ratified in the referendum on June 12th has improved, according to the findings of the latest Irish Times /TNS mrbi poll, but those in favour of a Yes vote will need to campaign hard all the way to the finishing line to be sure of carrying the day.
Support for a Yes vote has increased by nine points to 35 per cent since the last Irish Times poll in January while support for the No side has risen by eight points to 18 per cent in the same period. The 47 per cent who are still undecided will determine the outcome.
With a two to one majority in favour of the treaty among those who know how they will vote, the impetus is now with the Yes side - but there is no room for complacency.
It is instructive to look at the first TNS mrbi Irish Times polls in the first and second referendums on the Nice Treaty.
The first poll on Nice One in May 2001 found 52 per cent in favour of the treaty with 21 per cent against and 28 per cent in the Don't Know camp. In the event, a month later 54 per cent voted No and just 46 per cent Yes in a turnout of just 35 per cent of voters.
By contrast, the first poll in the second referendum on the Nice Treaty indicated a tight result with 37 per cent in favour of the Treaty, 25 per cent against with 39 per cent undecided. In the event the referendum was carried comfortably with 63 per cent Yes and 37 per cent No. The big difference from the first Nice referendum was the turnout which had risen to 50 per cent.
The clear lesson for the Lisbon Treaty campaign is that the Yes side will win as long as the turnout is good. That means that a strong campaign over the next four weeks is imperative to get the vote out.
The emphasis being placed by the new Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, on the necessity for a Yes vote is already having an impact, particularly on Fianna Fáil voters. Party supporters are considerably more enthusiastic than the average about the treaty, with 47 per cent saying they intend to vote Yes and just 10 per cent No with 43 per cent still undecided or not intending to vote.
Fine Gael voters are considerably less enthusiastic, with 33 per cent in the Yes camp, 28 per cent No and 39 undecided. Labour voters are a bit stronger in support of the treaty, with 34 per cent Yes, 24 per cent No and 42 per cent don't know.
Green Party voters have followed their leaders with 35 per cent in favour and just 14 per cent against although 51 per cent are still in the undecided camp.
Sinn Féin voters are also in tune with their leadership with 34 per cent intending to vote No, just 12 per cent Yes and 53 per cent undecided.
There is a significant difference in the attitude of men and women to the treaty with 40 per cent of men in favour but just 29 per cent of women. The number of undecided women voters is significantly greater than the number of men in that category.
In terms of social class the strongest support for the Yes side comes from the better-off ABC1 voters but farmers are now also in favour of the treaty by 36 per cent to 20 per cent, by contrast with the last poll when they were equally divided for and against.
Older people were much more positively disposed towards voting Yes with 44 per cent of the over-65s in favour of the treaty and just 11 per cent against. That compared to a Yes figure of 25 per cent among the 18-25s where 20 per cent intend to vote No.
Across the regions, Dublin and Connacht Ulster are the strongest areas for the treaty, followed by the rest of Leinster, with Munster the weakest region.
When asked to list why they were voting Yes or No, voters provided a number of unprompted responses. The most often-cited reason for voting Yes was keeping Ireland involved in the EU. It was followed in order of importance by the view that it was necessary for our economic future, enabling the EU to function more effectively, the need to protect investment in Ireland, the belief that the EU has been good for this country, that it is the right thing to do and that it will strengthen Ireland's peace-keeping role.
On the No side the failure to understand what the treaty is about emerged as the biggest reason for taking that side while safeguarding Ireland's neutrality came as the second-most important reason for a No vote. Other important reasons given were that the bigger countries or east European countries had too much influence, keeping Irish identity and helping farmers in the world trade talks.
Despite the campaign to date, there is still a lot of ignorance about what is in the treaty. Asked if they understood what the treaty was about the biggest number, 38 per cent, said they didn't know, 31 per cent said they were vaguely aware of the issues, 23 per cent said they understood some of the issues and just 6 per cent said they had a good understanding of what the treaty was about.
In an attempt to measure underlying feeling about the EU, people were asked which of two statements came closest to their views - 43 per cent said Ireland should do all it could to unite fully with the EU; 38 per cent said Ireland should do all it could to protect its independence from the EU; and 18 per cent had no opinion.
...