Voting intentions on the referendum are too close to predict the outcome, suggests Ian McShane. The undecided voters could swing the result either way.
The last Irish Times/MRBI poll relating to the abortion referendum was conducted on January 21st and 22nd of this year. At that stage, 6 per cent of those polled indicated that they did not intend to vote in the referendum, 21 per cent were still undecided, while the remainder were split marginally in favour of a Yes vote.
Since then, the electorate has been subjected to a barrage of confusing, and in some cases contradictory messages, emanating from a variety of sources, as to precisely what they are being asked to vote for.
For example, there have been differing opinions from Government party sources on the one hand, and the Referendum Commission on the other, as to the legal status of the morning-after pill in the event of the amendment being carried.
There has also been mixed professional psychiatric advice relating to the extent to which the state of pregnancy is likely to precipitate suicide among women who display suicidal tendencies.
Those looking to non-political party campaigners for guidance are also faced with apparent contradictions.
Thus, while many traditional "pro-life" campaigners are recommending a Yes vote on the basis that it will more stringently safeguard against the conduct of legalised abortion in Ireland, others who would also describe themselves as pro-life are urging a No vote, as they feel the amendment does not go far enough in protecting the right to life.
Meanwhile, the Referendum Commission booklet, designed to explain to the electorate the intricacies of the amendment, and the ramifications of both a Yes and a No vote, has still not been received by all homes.
It might be expected that during a referendum campaign the proportion of undecideds registered at opinion polls would reduce as the election day draws nearer.
This is what tends to happen during local, general or European election campaigns as the looming reality of the poll focuses people's attention and they gain a clearer understanding of the subtleties of what the different candidates and parties are offering.
As illustrated in Table A, however, while there is still a marginally higher percentage of people stating they would vote Yes (35 per cent) than would vote No (31 per cent), compared to five weeks ago the proportion now claiming they will not vote at all has almost doubled, from 6 per cent to 11 per cent, with the undecideds increasing from 21 per cent to 23 per cent.
Table B further analyses voting intentions by party support, with a view to identifying the degree to which supporters of the various parties are likely to toe the party line in voting either Yes or No.
The analysis illustrates that while there is by no means uniform party loyalty in terms of voting intention, Fianna Fáil supporters are almost twice as likely to vote Yes (46 per cent) than No (24 per cent).
Meanwhile, supporters of the Labour Party, the Green Party and Sinn Féin are almost twice as likely to vote No than Yes.
Of the Opposition parties, there appears to be greatest disharmony within the Fine Gael support base. Thus, the gap between the proportion of Fine Gael supporters likely to vote Yes (28 per cent) and No (35 per cent) is narrower than that exhibited among supporters of any other party, while the highest proportion of undecideds is also registered among Fine Gael supporters, at 26 per cent.
Thus far, we have seen evidence of an increase in the number of voters undecided as to how to vote, as well as in the proportion of those who appear to have decided to opt out of the voting process altogether.
In order to shed some light on the factors driving this drift towards indecision, the responses elicited at a number of additional diagnostic questions have proven useful.
The pie chart, Understanding the Issues, sets down the answers to a question which simply read: "How well do you understand the issues involved in the Abortion Referendum?"
Respondents were presented with the different options on a card and asked to nominate the one which most closely represents their view.
As can be seen, only one in six of all voters feel they have a good understanding of what the referendum is about, while a total of almost a half are either only vaguely aware of the issues involved (27 per cent), or do not understand it at all (21 per cent).
As to who is perceived to be to blame for this lack of understanding, 79 per cent of all those polled stated that they believe they have not been adequately informed of the issues involved to enable them to make a decision as to how to vote.
People are clearly seeking concise, unambiguous guidance on the issues involved, and advocates of both sides of the debate will need to be as active as possible in stating their case if they are to woo the undecideds, and/or convert those currently leaning away from their own positioning.
Assuming at least a proportion of the undecideds receive enough information over the coming five days to enable them to decide how to vote, the question remains as to whether there is any evidence as to the direction in which they are more or less likely to sway.
The final question asked in relation to the referendum concerned the degree to which respondents are in favour of abortion being available in Ireland in all circumstances, in certain circumstances, or not under any circumstances.
The results indicate that a majority, albeit a marginal one, of Irish electors, at 57 per cent, is in favour of abortion in Ireland in certain circumstances, with a further 9 per cent in favour of the availability of abortion in all circumstances.
A further analysis of current voting intentions indicates that a total of 80 per cent of those currently likely to vote No are in favour of abortion in Ireland in certain (65 per cent) or all (15 per cent) circumstances.
Furthermore, a total of 65 per cent of the undecideds are in favour of abortion in certain (59 per cent) or all (6 per cent) circumstances.
It could therefore be argued that, depending on what arguments are put forward by both sides of the debate in the coming days, a higher proportion of undecideds are open to switch to the No camp than to the Yes camp.
To counteract this (see Table C), it is also a fact that a majority of those who feel they have a good or partial understanding of the issues involved are currently likely to vote Yes.
In summary, based on these figures the referendum vote next Wednesday could fall either way. A key question which will have a bearing on the final outcome is whether those already committed to voting Yes are more or less motivated to turn out and do so than are those who say they would vote No.
The second key consideration is the extent to which the substantial proportion of undecideds can be convinced to vote either way.
From the Government's perspective, it can be argued that the amendment is still there to be won.
In order to copperfasten a Yes vote, however, the electorate will need immediate clarification on a range of informational points, at the same time taking account of the fact that a majority of voters are actually in favour of abortion in Ireland in certain circumstances.
Whether there is enough time to effectively deal with all of these complexities over a five day period remains to be seen.
Ian McShane is Managing Director of MRBI