Another military coup is not expected, writes CLIFFORD COONAN
RAIN AND lightning enveloped Thailand’s most significant elections in decades, and when the clouds cleared, a 44-year-old businesswoman emerged as the most powerful figure in an increasingly thorny political landscape.
Despite the victor Yingluck Shinawatra’s obvious links to her exiled brother Thaksin, who is based in Dubai and cannot to return to Thailand because he faces two years in jail there, the scale of her victory is a sign that Thailand needs to address the glaring issues in its six-year political crisis.
“The Thai people have spoken, and we must respect that. It’s a new era,” said Kraisak Choonhavan, deputy leader of Abhisit Vejjajiva’s Democrat party, which has not won an election in two decades.
“This is an overwhelming majority so lets see what she makes of it. I hope there is no abuse of power and laws. I definitely think Thaksin is coming back now,” said Mr Kraisak, who was slightly fearful about Mr Thaksin’s “vindictiveness”.
“But you can’t be a puppet 24 hours a day. She is bright and able and can decide on things,” he said.
“Abhisit is the best politician I’ve ever worked with. But maybe his principles were too conservative for Thailand. It’s the price you pay for being too honest. They tried to be realistic on populist issues. I hope the Democrats have learned some lessons,” said Mr Kraisak.
Prapat Chongsanguan, a former governor of Bangkok mass transit company MRTA, is likely to play a significant role in the new government. “I assure you, he doesn’t control her. She has her own thoughts. Sure he has more experience, and he’s her older brother, but everyone listens to their older brother but she puts the country and the people before him,” he said.
The military is a major factor in Thai politics these days. Both times Mr Thaksin was elected, he left the military leadership intact but then made key changes a year later.
This angered the military and contributed to poor relations between his government and the army – a major factor in the coup which deposed him in 2006.
“Armies shouldn’t get involved in politics. It’s messy, because when they do, they have weapons,” said Mr Prapat.
He believes that Ms Yingluck will be more than the “clone” that her brother says she is and could bring a new element into Thai politics.
“She’s a woman. Men tend to be more aggressive. This is a start for the country to reconcile,” said Mr Prapat.
One possible scenario is that the Yellow Shirts, a broad alliance of monarchists and Bangkok businesspeople, could stage a repeat performance of their airport occupation from 2008. This brought Thailand’s tourism industry, a major factor in the country’s economy, to a halt.
“Let them do it. They’ll be the minority. It won’t be a repeat of 2008,” said Pithaya Pookaman, deputy spokesman of the Pheu Thai party.
Gothom Arya, a veteran peace and human rights advocate is a former electrical engineering professor at Chulalongkorn University and a former member of the first election commission.
“For me, this election concerns the political cartography of the nation. The south remains largely with the Democrats, the north is the opposite,” said Mr Gothom.
Thailand has seen 18 actual or attempted coups since the monarchy ceded absolute power in 1932 in favour of a parliamentary system.
Since the king took over, he has had more than 20 prime ministers serve under him.
“The central point remains about control of different political landlords. This is politics as it has been. There is not a very big difference from a year ago,” said Mr Gothom.
“A coup would be counterproductive. The economy is going ahead despite the political problem.
“It is finding its own way. The king will sleep soundly because he is above politics. Whoever is there will respect the monarchy,” he said.