Zyuganov increases lead over Yeltsin in latest poll

A NEW opinion poll shows the communist candidate increasing his lead over President Yeltsin

A NEW opinion poll shows the communist candidate increasing his lead over President Yeltsin. The poll, carried out for the All Russian Centre for Public Opinion (VTsIOM), has Mr Gennady,

Zyuganov stretching his lead from six to eight percentage points over the President in the run up to Russia's lune presidential elections.

Although Mr Zyuganov's rating fell from 27 per cent to 26 per cent in the 12 days since the previous VTsIOM poll, Mr Yeltsin's popularity fell three points from 21 per cent to 18 per cent over the same period.

Until the poll was published on the independent television network NTV on Sunday night, Mr Yeltsin had been consistently gaining ground on his communist opponent.

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The latest poll was conducted after Mr Yeltsin announced his initiative to end the war in Chechnya, an issue considered by most Russians to be the key one in the campaign.

But despite Mr Yeltsin's statement to the contrary, the war continues to rage and on Sunday evening rebel forces shot down a military helicopter. Reports yesterday said Russian forces bombed villages in the south east of the province.

Russian withdrawal from "peaceful areas" of Chechnya was due to begin yesterday but the commander on the ground, Gen Vyacheslav Tikhomirov, said Chechen attacks could delay troop movements.

The poll results can only be regarded as a setback for Mr Yeltsin's campaign even though 40 per cent of respondents in the same poll said they thought Mr Yeltsin was going to win.

This may reflect a general view put forward here that election results may be falsified in Mr Yeltsin's favour or simply that Russians find it hard to imagine someone being ousted from the Kremlin by a popular vote.

VTsIOM is regarded as the most accurate of the Russian polls but its spokesman in St Petersburg told The Irish Times he was worried by the fact that his organisation has been unable to accurately forecast the vote of the ultra nationalist Mr Vladimir Zhirinovsky in the past.

Mr Zhirinovsky is currently in joint fifth place with the eye surgeon Mr Vyacheslav Fyodorov on 8 per cent and behind Mr Zyuganov, Mr Yeltsin, the Democratic candidate, Mr Grigory Yavlinsky (10 per cent), and the nationalist, Gen Alexander Lebed, (10 per cent).

But the pollsters feel many Zhirinovsky supporters are saying they will vote for other candidates, notably Mr Yeltsin, rather than admit their real preference.

Almost all polls agree that in the likely event of a run off between Mr Yeltsin and Mr Zyuganov, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation will take the presidency to add to the control of the State Duma (Lower House of Parliament) which it gained last December.

Seamus Martin

Seamus Martin

Seamus Martin is a former international editor and Moscow correspondent for The Irish Times