As candidates continue to enter the parade ring in advance of the gruelling political steeplechase to replace Boris Johnson, the Irish Government will be studying the runners and riders with interest and concern. They will be acutely aware that, while this is very much an English Grand National, the outcome will have a significant impact on Ireland.
In this country, we can at least take some comfort from the likelihood that the next UK prime minister will represent an upgrade on the present one. A great majority of the British public shares that hope. Even if there is significant continuity in policy terms, we can look forward to an occupant of Downing Street who is at least vaguely serious.
The Conservative Party has been deeply divided for several decades between moderates and fundamentalists. The issue of Europe, the principal litmus test of that factional allegiance, should have been settled by Brexit. However, the internal political divide finds no shortage of outlets, including in the conspiracy theory that Brexit is under threat. One British newspaper has rightly described the contest as one “that will expose fault lines in a fractured party”.
Even allowing for complex positioning, significant nuance and hedging of bets, representatives of two broad tendencies are already emerging to replace Johnson. Liz Truss, for example, has reinvented herself as the new “Thatcher”, standard bearer of Europe-bashing. She not only drew up the controversial Northern Ireland protocol Bill, but did so in cahoots with the hard-line European Research Group and the DUP. Although foreign secretary, she seems very comfortable with breaking international law. Suella Braverman, an attorney general who wears her legal training lightly, hopes to outflank Truss. Both are seeking support from among MPs who still cling to Brexit like a comfort blanket, the only thing that gives their political lives meaning in a complex world. Penny Mordaunt and Priti Patel are also brandishing their hard-line Brexit credentials.
On the other hand, there is a range of other candidates who, even if obliged to align their candidacies with some of the hard-line stances to which Johnson has dragged the Tory Party, would probably hope, in office, to represent something more traditional and centrist. These include Sajid Javid, who as chancellor was the only minister to stand up to Dominic Cummings; the impressive Tom Tugendhat; Rishi Sunak, who seems to have tried to exercise some moderating influence on those advocating maximum confrontation with Brussels; and Jeremy Hunt, who has generally been a courteous and reflective politician. Sunak and Tugendhat have both placed centre-stage the restoration of trust. This must surely include an international dimension.
The Irish Government will not be plumping for any particular horse in this race. That would serve no purpose and could even be a kiss of death. However, in Ireland it would not be unreasonable to hope for four things in a new prime minister. First, a recognition of the importance of seeking a closer relationship with the EU rather than pandering to internal Tory Party anti-EU zealotry. Second, an openness to rebuilding the friendship between Britain and Ireland and the trust that has been gravely damaged by Johnson’s antics. Third, an end to the recent unilateralism on Northern Ireland and a return to British/Irish co-guarantorship as a fundamental principle of the peace process. Fourth, a return to respecting international law, a precondition for the other three objectives.
Put another way, we hope for a UK prime minister who puts Britain’s own interests first. It is self-evidently not in Britain’s interests to continue to seek further trade confrontation with the EU by pursuing a unilateral approach to the Northern Ireland protocol. Nor is it in Britain’s interests to disrespect its nearest neighbour, to discard a shared responsibility for the peace process or to face further reputational damage regarding international law.
Another reason why it would be foolish for us to stake all our money on any single horse in this race is that what matters is not only where each candidate stands now but where he or she will be positioned at the end of the contest. Given the need for candidates to seek support across the party, and in particular the requirement for the two leading candidates to appeal in a second round of voting to the ageing membership of the Conservative Party, we are already witnessing the phenomenon of hands being voluntarily tied by expedient promises. Important hostages are already being given to fortune.
Hopefully the more attractive candidates will get round the Grand National course without unseating all their principles at Becher’s Brook or drowning their freedom of manoeuvre in the Water Jump. If any new prime minister does sincerely seek a better relationship with the EU and Ireland, he or she will be warmly embraced.
Bobby McDonagh is a former ambassador to London, Brussels and Rome