It is hardly a surprise that China has emerged as an ideological fault line in the ongoing Conservative leadership contest. Tensions over Taiwan are mounting. Only last week, the head of the British navy warned that the West may be underestimating the military capabilities of Beijing. And conversations about British universities’ over-reliance on Chinese money are increasing in frequency.
Details aside, the central importance of China to the race tells us something deeper about the priorities of Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss. Both are committed to outmanoeuvring each other on the topic, proving their credentials as the more robust opponent to creeping Chinese influence. Whoever can successfully pitch their criticism of the superpower will conveniently position themselves as a true defender of British values, boldly standing up for human rights on a global stage. An unassailable enemy of authoritarianism.
China has become a hobby horse in this debate precisely because it is a cultural signifier, a proxy for the contenders’ freedom-loving and patriotic impulses. Cynically or not, it is a perfect calling card for Sunak and Truss as they try to appeal to the 200,000 or so Conservative Party members – it is their votes and their votes only that matter in the end.
Research estimates that the average, fee-paying member of the party’s grassroots – who will elect the next leader – is over 60, male, resident in southern England, overwhelmingly pro-Brexit, including the hard vision of Brexit that Boris Johnson ultimately implemented. Sunak and Truss have gambled that hawkishness on China will play well with this crowd. They’re probably right.
Wellbeing of region
Conspicuous in its absence from the entire conversation, but always on the sidelines nonetheless, is Northern Ireland. The aspirant leaders’ silence on the question is as easily explained as their loudness on China. It’s not a vote winner – Northern Ireland is not just physically distant from the bulk of Conservative Party members but has long been emotionally and psychologically distant too.
We know that the question of the Border, the functioning of the executive and the general economic wellbeing of the region has never been a serious issue for the English electorate. During the referendum campaigns in 2015, aside from one or two high-level but ultimately ineffective interventions, Northern Ireland was relegated to a secondary or tertiary issue struggling for a slot in the newspapers. The Remain campaign was too busy making insipid bureaucratic arguments to raise the worrying issue of Northern Ireland. Of course, the Leave campaign did not want to draw attention to the issue – had they even realised there was one in the first place.
Plus ca change. Nowadays in Westminster it borders on unfashionable to talk about Brexit. It’s old-hat; time to move on. Didn’t Johnson secure the keys to Number 10 on the promise of getting it all over and done with anyway? Any mention of the myriad Brexit-induced problems generates eye rolls among certain contingents, along with allegations of living in the past. It is time to move forward, to think about “levelling up”, to get back to what really matters.
Brexit elements
The ostrich has buried his head so far in the sand he might soon strike oil. Because (it hardly needs to be said) the things that “really matter” – like Northern Ireland having a functioning executive, the maintenance of peace, easy trading arrangements for British producers, queues at Dover and the amount of money in the pockets of consumers – are all tied inextricably to Brexit.
And most important of all – and the very thing that should be plaguing the minds of Sunak and Truss as they aim for Downing Street – is the simple fact that the question of the Northern Irish Border will land squarely on their lap on the first day of the job. And though talking about that won’t help them win a debate or gain electoral momentum, they must know that simply pretending a problem is not there will not make it vanish. China might win votes but the winner faces a reckoning when it comes to the problems under their nose.
The Border is the one thing no prime minister has made sense of since the referendum. Theresa May was undone by her own MPs and her hostile bedfellows in the DUP. They could not accept the backstop. Johnson was undone in a deluge of scandal but, as he cedes the office to his incumbent, we should note that he has not come any closer to solving the problem either. Truss herself was a primary ideological architect of moves to unilaterally rip up the protocol.
Of course none of this matters to Sunak or Truss at the current juncture because they know their voters are not fixated on the fine tuning – or even the rough tuning – of Brexit. Brexit for most was always a cultural thing, more of a vibe, an assertion about something to do with Britishness. That is precisely why Johnson was so popular – he understood and embodied that energy too.
Unfortunately, his successor can probably not ride on those coattails for very much longer. After the electioneering is done, and votes are won with sweeping appeals to values and vision, whoever wins will have to make the details work or they also risk being undone by them.