Sinn Féin goes into its Ard Fheis this weekend in the strongest position of its electoral history; biggest party in the North; poised to become the biggest party in the South whenever the next general election takes place.
Leafing through its clár – especially the motions from the Ard Chomhairle which are guaranteed to become policy – there is one distinctive message that seeps out everywhere: United Ireland. Or more specifically, the United Ireland Agenda. On one level, that’s deeply unsurprising. It is, after all, the party’s raison d’être.
In the North the nub remains identity politics and those who vote Sinn Féin tend to stay Sinn Féin. In the South it is different
What is striking is how it’s framed. What was until recently more of an aspiration (Sinn Féin’s repeated calls for a border poll, anyone?) is now approached as an actual process involving practical steps.
The first motion is entitled “Planning for a United Ireland”. It calls for an all-island Citizens’ Assembly on Irish Unity “to plan and prepare for constitutional change”.
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The motion continues: “The Citizens’ Assembly should discuss and make recommendations to the Government on the future. These recommendations should inform Government policy.”
The party is entitled to be self-confident at the moment, as it continues its rise in the polls after its breakthrough election in 2020. But one impression that might be taken from the clár is that Sinn Féin already has the next election in the bag. “Planning for a United Ireland” might as well read “Planning for Sinn Féin to take over the reins of power”.
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There are plenty of lessons from political history to counter such bold assumptions. It does not follow that the 2025 election is a done deal.
Look at the UK in 1990. It entered a recession that got worse over the following 18 months. The new Tory leader John Major had an image that was as dull as ditchwater (his cartoon image was of a man who wore his Y-fronts outside his trousers).
The Conservatives lagged badly behind Labour in opinion polls throughout 1990 and 1991. The party had terrible local elections in 1991. Circumstances changed over the next six months. The economy recovered a bit. The Tories ran a deeply negative election campaign. Major traded on his image as someone who came from humble working-class roots. It worked well compared to Labour’s super slick campaign. Major narrowly won the 1992 election.
Of course, there are sackfuls of examples that show the opposite, of the odds-on favourite romping home. The lesson, however, is one of making premature assumptions.
I’m not so sure past deeds are no longer capable of being factored into any discussion on Sinn Féin
Another common assumption is that if Sinn Féin goes into power it will dominate Irish politics for a generation, that it will be, de facto, the Manchester City of Irish politics.
That argument does not stand up to scrutiny in the south. Rather Sinn Féin could be more like Fulham, the party which won a dramatic promotion to the premiership before being demoted quickly the following season after flattering to deceive.
In the North the nub remains identity politics and those who vote Sinn Féin tend to stay Sinn Féin. In the South it is different. How much of Sinn Féin’s current support is soft? I’d wager a fair bit. That’s not exclusive to Sinn Féin alone. The age where hundreds of thousands of supporters gave undying fealty to political parties has long gone. There is a pollen bee quality to voters these days – they alight temporarily before moving on. Sinn Féin’s support base in the South is based on its policies on housing, the cost-of-living, and health. It has made big promises involving spending running into many billions across a dizzying array of policy areas. Fianna Fáil were particularly prone to the overpromise in the past. For its part Sinn Féin already looks like it has overshot the runway.
The electorate is less forgiving these days though – look at the other Fulhams of European politics, Podemos and Syriza, both of which took big hits in support when they rowed back on promises they could not keep.
This brings us to another challenge facing Sinn Féin: coming up with a way to run with the hare and chase with the hounds. The party’s aim of a democratic socialist republic and its high solidarity taxes for the rich can’t coexist with its soothing words to multinationals that a Sinn Féin government won’t scare the horses. Nor can the rush by individuals from Sinn Féin to the courts to protect their good name be a fruitful strategy, especially given the out-of-order comment about a senior civil servant made by the party’s normally adroit spokesman on housing. Climate change is another area where the party has tried to be all things to all people with its opposition to carbon tax, in particular, sticking out like a sore thumb. Its approach can’t be reconciled with real life.
Then there’s the Up the ‘Ra conundrum. There’s a belief abroad that public outrage or disquiet about past atrocities have evaporated, especially among the young. Will the murder of Paul Quinn, the 21-year-old who was beaten to death by republicans in Co Monaghan in 2007, or Mairia Cahill’s treatment at the hands of the republican movement, or countless other despicable acts be allowed to be ignored because they happened a long time ago.
I’m not so sure past deeds are no longer capable of being factored into any discussion on Sinn Féin. It depends, however, on who is making the criticism and how it is being made. It could (and should) actually come from within. Political parties need to be big enough to acknowledge (explicitly) their own past wrongs without trying to spread the blame far and wide