Headlines from another week of so-called silly season: a hidden room is found in a hotel; learner drivers are reduced to tears; 24 white-tailed eagle chicks are released; trainee gardaí regret their tattoos; Molly Malone statue is vandalised. Later in the week comes the shock news that RTÉ is ending contract negotiations with star presenter Ryan Tubridy.
Politically, the news agenda has been quiet, and Irish politics has been in a state of slumber. The final days of summer are closing in, however, and in just over a week the starting gun will be fired on a crucial 14 months. At the end of that period, things could look very different, not just in Ireland, but across Europe and in the US, too.
At home, on August 30th the Electoral Commission will publish its boundary commission report, a development that is causing much anxiety inside Leinster House. It will be the biggest reform of the electoral system in decades.
This could end up being the final nail in the coffin for wavering Fine Gaelers who are already unsure about their chances next time
Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe said on Thursday that there was “red-hot interest all over the political system” about the changes. Politicians in Fine Gael are keeping a particularly close eye. Five well-known TDs within the party have already said they will not be running for election again, and there is speculation that others might join them.
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The review of the boundaries could see areas where a TD might be popular hived off and put into another constituency. This could end up being the final nail in the coffin for wavering Fine Gaelers who are already unsure about their chances next time.
The effect is a huge loss of institutional knowledge and experience, and when you are hovering around 20 per cent in the polls, a TD’s individual brand matters all the more.
The commission is due to announce 11-21 extra seats in the next Dáil. Sinn Féin, which ran too few candidates last time, will no doubt throw the kitchen sink at it this term as they know the Dáil majority they need could rise from 81 to 91 given those potential extra seats. But there is a huge opportunity there for them as they eye up three-candidate strategies across the country.
With persistent speculation that an election will be held in November 2024 (Fine Gael has form in dawdling over potential November elections and later regretting it) the next 14 months will undoubtedly see the gloves come off as the former Civil War parties try again to keep Sinn Féin outside the gates.
The careers of each of the leaders of the three biggest parties are on the line, and they know it
Neither Fine Gael nor Fianna Fáil believe they have any chance of winning anything near a majority on their own; no party has done so in more than 40 years. They don’t even try to hide it: when they answer questions about disappointing opinion polls, they often claim that with their votes combined they could probably do it all again.
Furthermore, it’s not just backbenchers and Ministers who are anxiously waiting on a new map to tell them what their futures might look like. The careers of each of the leaders of the three biggest parties are on the line too, and they know it.
Sinn Féin wants to smash all expectations and clinch a thumping victory the likes of which they could have only dreamed about in 2016.
In this scenario, Mary Lou McDonald will have won the ultimate Sinn Féin long game and would be in a position to finally put a united Ireland right at the top of the political agenda.
There are flies in the ointment, however. Sinn Féin TDs don’t say it in public but some believe they should be doing much better in the polls given the number of Coalition controversies and the never-ending housing and health crises. Some wonder if their strong stance condemning anti-immigrant rhetoric has lost them a section of their base.
It also must be asked if Sinn Féin’s constant hectoring across the floor of the Dáil chamber is becoming wearying for the public. The party also has the youth vote, but will this cohort turn out on the day? Being labelled as a populist party, too, can scare off the more risk-averse voter who remembers where promising everything can lead.
The other obvious problem is that, on current projections, Sinn Féin would not command a majority. Hopping into bed with Fianna Fáil will hardly convince the electorate that the next Government won’t be more of the same, not when Sinn Féin portrays itself as the champion of change.
Either way, if Sinn Féin emerges in pole position and leave Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in their wake, the leaderships of Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin will become a live question. Instead of articles with off-the-record grumblings from disaffected backbenchers, we will hear on-the-record ominous mutterings from future leadership candidates such as Simon Harris or Michael McGrath.
Micheál Martin, for his part, says he has no designs on two big upcoming jobs (European Commissioner and president of the European Council) but then he has to say that, doesn’t he? Any other comment would make him a lame duck and undermine any potential move towards Europe.
On the flipside of all this, if Sinn Féin snatch defeat from the jaws of victory then we might see something extremely irregular: public dissent within the ranks and questions around the performance of Mary Lou McDonald, a leader who is almost never criticised by her party faithful.
With so much at stake for these three parties, and for their leaders personally, the publication of the new constituency maps and return of the Dáil will almost certainly be the de facto start of the general election campaign. Buckle up.